TOMD Content Deployment

The latest figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) show that inflation fell to 3.6% in October, the lowest level in four months. While this is down slightly from 3.8% in September, it remains significantly above the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

The largest downward contribution to inflation came from housing and household services, where the 12-month inflation rate fell from 5.9% in September to 5.0% in October. This easing was mainly driven by smaller increases in gas and electricity prices. The restaurants and hotels divisions also helped reduce overall inflation, with accommodation services recording a 2.2% monthly fall in prices, compared with a 0.2% decline in October 2024.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages made the largest upward contribution to inflation last month, following a dip in September. The 12-month inflation rate rose to 4.9%, up from 4.5% the previous month. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.5%, compared with a 0.1% rise in October 2024. Bread, cereals, meat and fish all saw price increases, while the cost of fruit decreased slightly.

Ben Jones, Lead Economist at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), commented, “With Q3 GDP figures confirming a weak growth backdrop and the labour market continuing to soften, today’s figures add to the evidence that price pressures are gradually subsiding. Combined with the likelihood of further fiscal consolidation measures at the Budget, the data should give the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee confidence that inflation risks are diminishing. If this trend continues, the case for an interest rate cut in December looks increasingly compelling.”

From December, customers with savings accounts will benefit from increased protection if their bank or building society fails. Since 2017, UK bank customers have been entitled to claim up to £85,000 under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) if their bank collapses. The Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) confirmed last week that this deposit protection limit will increase to £120,000. The new figure, which is more than the PRA’s initial proposal of £110,000, takes inflation into account and reflects feedback from consultations.

Martyn Beauchamp, CEO of the FSCS, commented, “This rise ensures that consumers can feel confident their money is safe, from the very first penny up to £120,000. At FSCS, we know that trust in financial services is vital for stability and growth. This enhanced protection will reassure consumers and support confidence in the UK’s financial system.”

In addition, the limit for temporary high balances will also increase, meaning the FSCS will protect up to £1.4m for six months, provided that the customer is funding a significant life event such as buying a house or in receipt of an insurance payout. This is up from the current limit of £1m.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver her much-anticipated Budget today (26 November) after Prime Minister’s Questions. There is speculation that, according to new forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the ‘black hole’ in public finances may be smaller than previously thought.

Some reports also indicate that Reeves is no longer planning to announce increases to Income Tax, as per the Labour Party’s manifesto pledge ‘not to increase taxes on working people.’ Potential measures that may be announced include revisions to Dividend Tax rates and an extension of the freeze on tax allowances and bands. We’ll know more when the Chancellor sets out her plans later today.

According to GfK’s index, consumer confidence dropped across the board in November. The overall index score fell by two points month-on-month to -19 and all other measures were down. Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months have fallen by two points to -32, which is six points lower than in November 2024.

Last week, Consumer Insights Director at GfK, Neil Bellamy, said, “This is a bleak set of results as we head towards next week’s Budget. A fall across all five measures suggests the public is bracing for difficult news, with little in the current climate to lift expectations.”

Financial advice is key, so please do not hesitate to get in contact with any questions or concerns you may have.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

All details are correct at time of writing (26 November 2025)

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released the final GDP figures ahead of the Autumn Budget. The data shows that economic growth was slower than expected in Q3 as GDP increased by only 0.1%, a slowdown when compared with 0.3% in the previous quarter.  

Analysts had predicted growth of 0.2%, so this lower figure will have come as a disappointment to many, including Chancellor Rachel Reeves. ONS attributed weak growth partly to the cyber attack on Land Rover in September, which halted car production for five weeks. As a result, motor manufacturing was down 28.6% in September, costing the economy an estimated £1.9bn. This likely contributed to the economy contracting by 0.1% in September. Other sectors showed weak growth, with the services sector only increasing by 0.2% in Q3, down from 0.4% in Q2.  

Rachel Reeves commented on the news, “We had the fastest-growing economy in the G7 in the first half of the year, but there’s more to do to build an economy that works for working people. At my Budget later this month, I will take the fair decisions to build a strong economy that helps us to continue to cut waiting lists, cut the national debt and cut the cost of living.” 

Meanwhile, Stuart Morrison at the British Chambers of Commerce delivered a clear message to the Chancellor, “The lack of strong, consistent growth means this month’s Budget is a make-or-break moment for business – it must deliver for firms across the UK. Our latest survey of over 4,600 businesses shows a quarter have scaled back their investment plans and a fifth are expecting their turnover to worsen over the next year. That’s why we are clear, there must be no more taxes on business in November’s Budget.” 

The latest UK Residential Market Survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) indicates that house buyers and sellers are acting cautiously in anticipation of the Budget. In October, new buyer enquiries recorded a net balance of -24%, down from -21% the previous month and the weakest reading since April 2025. This decrease was seen across the regions. Agreed sales also recorded a monthly decline, falling from -17% to -24%. However, +7% of survey respondents expect sales activity to pick up over the next year.   

RICS noted that comments from surveyors across the UK reference a ‘holding pattern’ as the nation delays making major decisions until after the Budget. Higher-end properties in London seem to be particularly sensitive, with multiple agents observing that properties above £1m are facing delays.  

RICS Head of Market Research and Analysis, Tarrant Parsons, commented, “The coming months will be crucial in assessing how the market responds to the Budget, which could prove a turning point in either direction. Greater clarity over housing taxation policy may help stabilise sentiment, but if the measures announced add further pressure to activity, they risk deepening the current slowdown.” 

COP30 is now well underway, with some significant developments emerging from the annual climate summit. The government’s credit export agency, UK Export Finance (UKEF), has signed a reinsurance agreement with its Brazilian counterpart, AGBF. This is the first agreement of its kind for AGBF and is expected to create new business opportunities in energy transition and infrastructure projects.  

UKEF has also secured financial support from HSBC for Hive Energy, enabling the green energy company to expand its solar power projects across Europe, North America, the Caribbean, South America and Africa. This forms part of UKEF’s commitment to provide £10bn in clean growth finance by 2029, thus supporting the government’s goal to make Britain a clean energy superpower by 2030.   

In addition, the first progress report of the Net Zero Export Credit Alliance (NZECA) has been released. Created at COP28 in 2023, NZECA comprises export credit agencies from nine different countries. The report shows that four members are reporting measurable emissions reductions and lower portfolio greenhouse gas intensity. 

Financial advice is key, so please do not hesitate to get in contact with any questions or concerns you may have. 

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. 

All details are correct at time of writing (19 November 2025) 

Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) voted to hold Bank Rate at 4% for the second consecutive meeting. It was a tight decision, with five members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voting to retain the rate, while the remaining four favoured a 0.25% reduction.  

In October, the annual inflation rate remained at 3.8% for the third month in a row. The BoE believes this is likely to be the peak but Governor Andrew Bailey, who held the casting vote, said he would prefer to “wait and see” how the figures evolve before making another cut.  

Some analysts are speculating that a reduction to Bank Rate could come at the next MPC meeting on 18 December, following the much-anticipated Autumn Budget on 26 November. Between now and then, two new sets of inflation figures will be published, which will provide clearer evidence on whether inflation is easing.  

Andrew Bailey said, “We still think rates are on a gradual path downwards, but we need to be sure that inflation is on track to return to our 2% target before we cut them again.” Meanwhile, Rachel Reeves commented on the decision, “Under this government, we have seen five interest rate cuts that have helped bring down costs for families and businesses and today’s forecast shows that inflation is due to fall faster than previously predicted.” 

COP30 began on 6 November, marking the 30^th annual United Nations climate summit. Brazil chose to hold the conference in Belém near the environmentally vulnerable Amazon, as it is directly affected by climate change. This decision has caused some controversy because trees were cut down earlier this year to build a road for the conference.  

Among those attending the leaders’ summit were UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Prince William attended on behalf of King Charles. There were some notable absences, including US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, representing two nations that are the largest emitters of harmful gases. The US government said it does not plan to send any high-level representatives. 

A key discussion point is likely to be the Paris Agreement from COP21 – in 2015, nearly 200 countries agreed to limit temperature increases to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but this target is unlikely to be met. Money is often a point of tension at COP; richer countries have pledged $300bn a year in climate finance to developing nations by 2035, but this is much less than required.  

Research has found that many first-time buyers (FTBs) are delaying making any big property decisions until after the Autumn Budget. According to eXp UK, 47% of new homeowners have put their plans on hold due to uncertainty surrounding housing and tax policies. When asked what they want from the Budget, nearly half (48%) of survey respondents said they would like Rachel Reeves to announce new or extended government schemes (such as Help to Buy or the mortgage guarantee scheme). Meanwhile, a third (35%) hoped that the government would improve affordability and help boost housing supply. Interestingly, only a quarter (26%) wanted a reduction or removal of Stamp Duty, indicating that FTBs are looking for longer-term policy changes rather than temporary tax breaks which prompt a flurry of activity.  

A recent report has prompted concern that the new Renters’ Rights Bill will force rents higher. In a survey of landlords, Pegasus Insight found that 71% expect to raise the price of rent to account for new costs and restrictions related to the Bill. Meanwhile, 73% are concerned that it will negatively impact letting activity and 81% believe it will be damaging for the wider private rented sector. Due to the end of Section 21 ‘no fault’ evictions, 81% expect that they will be more selective about who rents their property.    

Unemployment has risen to 5% in the three months to September, showing signs the jobs market has weakened, according to figures released on Tuesday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). According to ONS this is the highest rate since the period covering December 2020 to February 2021, coming in above the 4.9% projected by many analysts. 

Financial advice is key, so please do not hesitate to get in contact with any questions or concerns you may have. 

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. 

All details are correct at time of writing (12 November 2025)