News in Review

“The global recovery continues, but momentum has weakened”

In its latest assessment of world economic prospects published on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2021 global growth forecast slightly to 5.9%. The international soothsayer also stated that risks to economic prospects have increased, while policy trade-offs have become more complex in the ongoing pandemic. IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said, “The global recovery continues, but momentum has weakened, hobbled by the pandemic.”

Supply chain adviser appointed

In the UK, during a week which saw continuing supply chain disruption and concerns over rising energy costs feature prominently across the news headlines, the Prime Minister appointed ex-Tesco boss, Sir David Lewis, as Chair of the newly created Supply Chain Advisory Group. The move was welcomed by business leaders, with CBI Director General Tony Danker describing it as “a positive development which shows the government is willing to listen to and work in partnership with business to tackle current challenges.”

Job market recovery continues

Office for National Statistics (ONS) data released on Tuesday reported good news on the jobs front. The latest figures showed the number of payroll employees rose to a record level, while vacancies hit another all-time high and unemployment continued to fall. ONS Director of Economic Statistics Darren Morgan said, “The jobs market has continued to recover with the number of employees on payroll in September now well exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Vacancies also reached a new one-month record in September, with our latest estimates suggesting that all industries have at least as many jobs on offer now as before the onset of COVID-19.”

Other data released last week also suggests the end of the furlough scheme on 30 September is unlikely to have triggered a fresh wave of redundancies. Although around a million workers were still believed to be on furlough when the scheme wound down, data from the Insolvency Service shows the number of redundancies proposed by employers in September was close to record low levels, with just 13,836 jobs reportedly at risk.

Starter salaries increasing

A survey released last week by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation highlighted the impact the current robust demand for workers is having on wages. The survey of 400 recruitment firms found the number of candidates available for jobs stands at a near-record low, with starting salaries for both permanent and temporary staff now rising at the fastest rate in the survey’s 24-year history.

Separate data from ONS showed that average weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) in the three months to August were 6.0% higher than in the comparable period last year, down from last month’s figure of 6.8%. ONS, however, again pointed out that the figures are being inflated by temporary factors and said their estimate of the current underlying pace of wage growth is between 4.1% and 5.6%. This compares with growth of around 3% just before the pandemic hit.

Rate rise speculation

The increase in employment and higher starter salaries has further raised the possibility that the Bank of England (BoE) may sanction an interest rate hike sooner than previously expected. The recent tone of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has become more hawkish and last weekend one of its members, Michael Saunders, told households to get ready for “significantly earlier” interest rate rises as inflationary pressures mount.

While the case for a first post-pandemic rise has certainly strengthened, the BoE’s new Chief Economist and MPC member, Huw Pill, said he still expects rates to remain at relatively low levels. In comments published last Thursday, Mr Pill admitted the “magnitude and duration of the transient inflation spike is proving greater than expected” but said he expects rates “to remain at relatively low levels for the coming years.”

US Senate averts debt crisis

In the US last week, the Senate voted to temporarily raise the nation’s debt limit by $480bn, thereby averting a historic default which analysts said would have devastated the economy. The breakthrough came after weeks of partisan fighting and less than a fortnight before the US would have been unable to borrow money or pay off loans for the first time in its history. The bill was approved by 50 votes to 48 following Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell’s decision to offer his support to the short-term extension.

Here to help

Financial advice is key, so please do not hesitate to get in contact with any questions or concerns you may have.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

Triple lock changes for 2022-23

After much speculation, in September, the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, confirmed suspension of the average earnings component of the pension triple lock, to avoid a disproportionate rise of the State Pension following the pandemic. For the 2022-23 tax year only, the new and basic State Pension will increase by the higher of either 2.5% or the consumer rate of inflation.

The value of investments and income from them may go down. You may not get back the original amount invested

National Insurance and dividend tax rises

A new health and social care tax will be introduced across the UK from April 2022. The tax will initially begin as a 1.25 percentage point increase in National Insurance, paid by both workers and employers. From April 2023, it will become a separate tax on earned income, calculated in the same way as National Insurance and ring-fenced as a health and social care levy. Tax on share dividends is also scheduled to increase by 1.25 percentage points.

The value of investments and income from them may go down. You may not get back the original amount invested

Percentage sales at decade high

Analysis1 suggests that almost seven in ten UK properties for sale, found a buyer in the year to June 2021, the highest rate in a decade.

Regional differences Scotland led the way with 89% of homes finding a buyer, while Yorkshire & the Humber was the second most successful area at 77%. Property hotspots included Falkirk and Sheffield, where 94% and 83% of homes were sold respectively. In contrast, London’s figure of 48% was below the average rate of 53% recorded between 2012 and early 2020.

Demand cools

Recent analysis of conveyancing quotes from comparison site reallymoving suggests that buyer demand is beginning to slow from its March peak, with successive drops between April and May (13%) and May and June (18%). This is likely to ease pressure on prices as we move further into the second half of the year. Rob Houghton, CEO of reallymoving, commented, “With the influence of the Stamp Duty holiday now largely expired alongside early signs that buyer demand is returning to more normal levels, we can expect prices to follow suit and return to a more stable trajectory.”

1Rightmove, 2021

As a mortgage is secured against your home or property, it could be repossessed if you do not keep up mortgage repayments.

Estate planning update

HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) published its annual statistics on Inheritance Tax (IHT) in late July, revealing that IHT payments in the 2020-21 tax year totalled £5.4bn, up around £0.2bn (almost 4%) on the previous year, when receipts were slightly lower than 2018-19. Typically, more than 20,000 deceased estates a year are subject to an IHT charge.

The figures reveal that there has been a reduction in the number of estates affected in recent years, which HMRC believes is due to the phased introduction of the residence nil-rate band, which can allow the estates of married couples and civil partners to receive a total £1m nil-rate IHT band. A transferable nil-rate also assists this outcome, as it is possible to transfer any unused IHT allowance on death to a surviving spouse.

Estate planning can help to keep an estate out of the clutches of IHT or at least reduce the amount of tax payable, by taking simple steps such as making lifetime gifts, through to more complex trust arrangements. It is a specialist area, particularly with the possibility of a revised IHT regime being introduced, so professional input is advisable.

The value of investments and income from them may go down. You may not get back the original amount invested. Inheritance Tax Planning is not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

News in Review

“Household saving fell particularly strongly in the latest quarter from the record highs seen during the pandemic”

The easing of COVID restrictions has resulted in an economic rebound that has exceeded initial estimates, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). During Q2, the economy grew by 5.5%, up from the 4.8% forecast earlier this year. This is a result of higher spending since April, when the first lockdown easing permitted outdoor dining, in addition to a significant drop in saving as the economy reopened.

Deputy National Statistician at the ONS, Jonathan Athow, commented, “Household saving fell particularly strongly in the latest quarter from the record highs seen during the pandemic, as many people were again able to spend on shopping, eating out and driving their cars.”

However, the latest data suggests that growth is beginning to slow, with the July ‘pingdemic’ and current supply chain issues putting the brakes on recovery. The monthly growth figure in July was just 0.1%, a sharp drop from 1.4% in June. This was reflected in the Bank of England’s latest GDP forecast, which revised its predictions for Q3 growth down to 2.1% from a previous forecast of 2.9%.

Furlough ends

On 30 September, the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, or furlough scheme, which has helped to pay the wages of 11.6 million workers over the course of the pandemic, finally came to a close. For the estimated one million workers still being supported by the scheme in September, the future is uncertain. Forecasts from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and Dutch financial services firm, ING, in August, suggested that the unemployment rate will rise following the scheme’s end, with NIESR predicting that it will rise to 5.4% and ING predicting an increase to 5.5%. This is in contrast to the Bank of England’s own predictions, with the central bank stating it believed that unemployment has now peaked and will continue to fall in spite of furlough’s end.

Renewal of other job support schemes

Rishi Sunak used his Conservative Party conference speech on Monday to commit £500m to renew other job support programmes set up during the pandemic. Specifically, the Kickstart Scheme, which subsidises eligible jobs for young people aged 16 to 24 on Universal Credit, will be extended to March 2022 and the Job Entry Targeted Support (JETS) scheme, which helps long-term unemployed people on Universal Credit, will be extended until next September. Further details will be confirmed at the Spending Review on 27 October, when it is presented alongside the Budget. The Chancellor spoke about how the government’s recovery approach focuses on “good work, better skills and higher wages.”

Market news

Some global indices recovered losses on Tuesday, after several large technology firms lost ground on Monday, as concerns intensified over increasing raw material prices adding to inflationary pressures. Markets received a boost as oil prices headed to multi-year highs, following the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies’ (OPEC+) decision to continue gradually increasing output. 

Rapid house price growth continues in September

The Stamp Duty holiday ‘taper’ threshold ended on Thursday in England and Northern Ireland, with the nil-rate threshold of £125,000 reinstated for the first time since July 2020. Predictions of a house price slump have not been realised so far, despite the maximum tax savings falling from £15,000 to £2,500 from 30 June. Double-digit house price growth continued into September, with Nationwide house price data calculating that prices had increased by 10% year-on-year.

Those trying to get onto the property ladder continue to face the difficulty of raising enough money for a deposit, with a 20% deposit on the average first-time buyer home now standing at a record 113% of gross income. For those who have raised the funds, there is a silver lining: mortgage rates are currently at record lows, with some lenders introducing mortgage deals under 1%.

Here to help

Financial advice is key, so please do not hesitate to get in contact with any questions or concerns you may have.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

LPA overhaul? – consultation launched

During the summer, the Ministry of Justice launched a 12-week consultation into the process of registering and creating a Lasting Power of Attorney (LPA).

A handy component of intergenerational wealth planning, LPAs are legal documents, introduced in 2007 to replace the Enduring Power of Attorney, that allow one person (the ‘donor’) to appoint another (the ‘attorney’) to manage their finances and/or general health and welfare. Questions have arisen in recent years, as to the system’s fitness for purpose. Also, concerns that unscrupulous relatives may be abusing the system to gain access to their elderly victims’ wealth, have arisen.

Time for tech

The Ministry of Justice commented, ‘The number of registered Lasting Powers of Attorney (LPA) has increased drastically in recent years to more than five million, but the process of making one retains many paper-based features that are over 30 years old… The consultation will look at how technology can be used to reform the process of witnessing, improve access and speed up the service.’

With the consultation closing in mid-October, the government intends to publish a response in January 2022.

The value of investments and income from them may go down. You may not get back the original amount invested.

Autumn: a time of change and preparation

As the darker evenings and colder days of autumn approach, our thoughts often turn to hunkering down and preparing for the winter months.

A season traditionally associated with change, preservation and preparation, autumn is a perfect time to get your finances organised before the rush of the festive season and the New Year.

Getting prepared

Autumn is an excellent time to get things done for many reasons, but it is a particularly good time to take stock of our finances. October marks the halfway point of the 2021-22 tax year, making it the perfect time to review your ISA and JISA contributions thus far, in addition to any other tax-related issues. Also take a look at your pension arrangements and check you are adequately protected against any potential financial shocks.

Don’t put it off!

It’s easy to talk about the importance of keeping on top of our finances and then put the task on the back burner. A recent poll1 discovered that Britain is a nation of procrastinators, with 84% of respondents admitting they put off important tasks by either doing nothing, or doing something more enjoyable or completely unrelated, while one fifth procrastinate every single day!

Facing your finances

However, the best way to keep on top of your finances is to deal with them even before you ‘need’ to – especially when it comes to your pension. Shockingly, research2 has found that almost as many people (34%) know the value of their wardrobe contents as those who know the value of their pension pots (38%)! Meanwhile, far more people know the value of their house (58%), their car (55%) and their television (63%).

Clearly, it is in our nature to procrastinate. However, many of us do get stressed when we’re not on top of things. Remember, you don’t have to do it alone – we can help you face your finances and get some of those important jobs ticked off sooner rather than later.

1Micro Biz Mag, 2021

2Aviva, 2021

The value of investments and income from them may go down. You may not get back the original amount invested. A pension is a long-term investment. The fund value may fluctuate and can go down. Your eventual income may depend on the size of the fund at retirement, future interest rates and tax legislation.

Reasons for economic optimism in the autumn months

Over the summer months, forecasting agencies took turns to upgrade their growth projections for developed nations as a succession of strong economic data was released. For example, in its latest assessment, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased its combined 2021 growth forecast for advanced economies by half a percentage point, primarily due to the success of vaccine rollouts and government stimulus measures supporting recovery. So, with the arrival of autumn, there are reasons to be optimistic, though future growth prospects are likely to be closely linked to the course the virus takes.

Uncertainties and risks

The IMF assessment did highlight a divergence in fortunes between rich and poor nations due to differing levels of access to vaccines. As a result, an offsetting downgrade across emerging markets and developing economies has resulted in the overall global growth forecast remaining unchanged.

Ongoing concerns surrounding inflation also persist, despite policymakers’ insistence that the recent upward trend in prices will prove to be transient. Furthermore, current levels of government and central bank spending can only be a temporary phenomenon and, when stopped, will certainly have an impact on growth.

Grounds for optimism

While the outlook is therefore expected to remain relatively uncertain, there are grounds for investor optimism. Market fundamentals remain comparatively strong, with earnings growth still being fuelled by pent-up demand as economies reopen, and companies start to invest again as the recovery continues to gather momentum.

Diversification remains vital

There is no question that the world is in a period of immense change, with issues relating to the pandemic, as well as sustainability, fundamentally changing the investment landscape. Some things, however, do not change, like the importance of holding a diversified investment portfolio and the need for expert financial advice. That’s where we come in.

The value of investments and income from them may go down. You may not get back the original amount invested. Inheritance Tax Planning is not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Robust recovery for housing and mortgage markets

Projections produced by the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (IMLA) suggest gross mortgage lending will reach £285bn this year. This revision, upgraded from a previous forecast of £283bn, points to the housing and mortgage markets’ continued strength in the face of pandemic-related challenges.

A strong housing market has caused a surge in mortgage lending. In the first five months of 2021, lending for house purchase was 87% higher than the same period in 2020 and 51% above the same period in 2019. Buy-to-let lending has also increased, propelled by house purchase transactions.

Peak buying

Housing turnover is expected to remain buoyant into Q3, with an additional 120,000 property transactions. However, after the high levels of market activity during the Stamp Duty holiday, the IMLA expects gross lending to dip in 2022, reducing its forecast from £286bn to £280bn.

Quieter spell to come?

While the Stamp Duty holiday has fuelled rising house prices, a slightly more subdued picture is likely to emerge following the end of the taper (30 September in England and Northern Ireland). This isn’t certain, however: in Scotland, where the Land and Buildings Transaction Tax reduction ended in March, buyer momentum has remained resilient and house prices have continued to rise at pace.

Kate Davies, Executive Director of the IMLA, commented, “With the Stamp Duty holiday soon coming to an end, and the Help to Buy scheme due to conclude in 2023, there is still a need for a coherent, long-term housing strategy from the government that embraces the public as well as the private sectors.”

More deals, lower rates

Separate figures1 show the number of mortgage deals has risen from 4,512 in July to 4,660 in August. At the same time, the average rate for two-year and five-year fixed rate products has fallen to 2.52% and 2.75% respectively.

The best deals aren’t lasting long though. If you’re looking to lock into a low rate, get in touch now and we can find the most suitable mortgage for your circumstances.

1Moneyfacts, 2021

As a mortgage is secured against your home or property, it could be repossessed if you do not keep up mortgage repayments.