News in Review

‘The global recovery is strong but imbalanced’

Last week saw the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) publish its latest appraisal of world economic prospects. In a relatively upbeat assessment, the Paris-based soothsayer predicted that global growth will hit 5.6% this year before moderating to 4.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023. However, the OECD did warn of potential risks suggesting the global recovery is strong but imbalanced.’

Perhaps unsurprisingly, a key area of concern relates to the Omicron COVID variant which OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone said could pose “a threat to the recovery, delaying a return to normality or something even worse.” However, while the forecasting agency did warn that the new variant threatens to intensify the imbalances that are slowing growth and raising inflationary pressures, it also advised monetary policymakers to be ‘cautious,’ stating that the most pressing policy requirement was currently to accelerate the vaccine roll-out programme globally.

UK growth forecasts

In terms of the UK economy, the OECD increased its 2021 growth forecast to 6.9%, 0.2 percentage points higher than previously expected. This upgrade propelled the UK to the top of this year’s G7 growth rankings, although looking further ahead the OECD did warn that ‘a prolonged period of acute supply and labour shortages could slow down the recovery.’

Similar themes also featured in Monday’s updated forecasts released by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and accounting firm KPMG. The CBI said it now expects growth of 6.9% this year and 5.1% in 2022, downgrades from previous predictions of 8.2% and 6.1%, which largely reflect weaker-than-anticipated data released since its June forecast. KPMG issued a more pessimistic prediction; its ‘best-case’ scenario forecasts a growth rate of 4.2% next year, with any additional disruption due to the Omicron strain expected to dampen the recovery further.

Rate rise in the balance

The economic impact of the new virus strain is also inevitably featuring in Bank of England (BoE) policymakers’ deliberations. In a speech on Friday, Michael Saunders, one of two Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members to vote in favour of a rate hike last month, cast doubts on whether he will take a similar stance at next week’s meeting. Mr Saunders said, “At present, given the new Omicron COVID variant has only been detected quite recently, there could be particular advantages in waiting to see more evidence on its possible effects on public health outcomes and hence on the economy.”

On Monday, however, comments made by another MPC member highlighted the dilemma currently facing the Bank’s policymakers. BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent said inflation could “comfortably exceed 5% when the Ofgem cap on retail energy prices is next adjusted in April” and suggested the tight labour market risked becoming a more persistent source of inflation. Following both sets of comments, analysts suggested a December rate rise very much hangs in the balance.

No sign of labour squeeze easing

Data released last Friday found the shortage of workers that is hampering UK businesses shows no signs of abating. According to figures from the Recruitment & Employment Confederation (REC), the number of job adverts continued to grow rapidly last month, with a further 210,000 new adverts posted during the week of 22-28 November. This took the total number of active job postings to over 3.5 million, a 16% increase since the end of October. REC Chief Executive Neil Carberry commented, “The growth in job adverts shows no signs of slowing as we reach the Christmas peak. Firms need to think about how they will attract staff facing greater competition than ever before.”

House prices continue to rise

Two house price indices were released in the last seven days, with both showing a continuation of the recent surge in prices. The Halifax index posted a fifth consecutive monthly rise, with prices in November 8.2% above year-earlier levels, which the mortgage lender said reflected a shortage of available properties, strong jobs market and low borrowing costs. Nationwide reported annual house price growth of 10% in November, although the building society described the outlook as ‘uncertain’, with concerns expressed over the impact of the Omicron variant on the wider economy.

Here to help

Financial advice is key, so please do not hesitate to get in contact with any questions or concerns you may have.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

Becoming a financial wellbeing ‘all-rounder’

Financial wellbeing is closely aligned with the control people have over their financial future. People with high levels tend to meet their long-term financial goals and have a clear idea about what makes them happy and what they want from life. This allows them to identify and achieve more meaningful life goals before and during retirement.

Balancing mind and money

People with a financial adviser are over four times more likely to display high levels of financial wellbeing, a new study1 has determined.

Based on a survey of 10,466 UK residents, the study highlighted that the key to building financial wellbeing is to have both ‘mindset’ and ‘money’ building blocks. Those with the best financial wellbeing scores did well on both fronts.

Are you an ‘all-rounder’?

Respondents with the best possible combination of scores were classified as ‘all-rounders’, with this group financially comfortable and enjoying life now while also planning for their future happiness. Such people are equipped to achieve the perfect balance between understanding the importance of both money and mindset.

Wellbeing and advice aligned

Unsurprisingly, the data highlighted that people who seek professional financial advice are far more likely to fit into the ‘all-rounder’ category, when compared with those who do not. Only 10% of those who had never received financial advice were lucky enough to combine a positive money mindset with healthy finances, compared to 44% of those who have an ongoing relationship with their adviser.

1Aegon, 2021

The value of investments and income from them may go down. You may not get back the original amount invested.

A lifetime of investing

As we move through life, our plans and goals will inevitably change. This also goes for our investment strategies, which need to flex and adapt as we move through the decades.

Your twenties and thirties

The financial decisions we make in early adulthood set the foundations for the rest of our lives. At this stage, one of your key goals should be to start saving. Retirement may seem a long way away but getting into good financial habits now could mean the difference between a comfortable retirement and having to work well into your later years.

Due to the timescales involved, now is the time to take on a little more risk – you’re more likely to recover any losses in the long term. So, it makes sense to put most of your savings into equity investments, which offer the highest potential for growth. Remember, you’ll also need some easily accessible savings for unexpected expenses, or to put down a property deposit.

Turning 40 and 50

Often considered the peak earning years, your forties and fifties should be dedicated to bolstering your pension and investment portfolio. It is also vital to have a sound, tax-efficient financial plan in place at this stage, with regular reviews to ensure you remain on track to meet your goals. As you approach retirement, a more conservative approach may be appropriate, with funds switching from equities to more stable asset categories.

Steady on in your sixties

With the State Pension Age continuing to rise, many people are now working and investing until well into their sixties. Your attention will now be shifting to income-generating products, and ensuring your income remains in line with your living expenses. You’ll also likely be considering the best and most tax-efficient ways to protect and transfer your wealth.

The value of investments and income from them may go down. You may not get back the original amount invested. A pension is a long-term investment. The fund value may fluctuate and can go down. Your eventual income may depend on the size of the fund at retirement, future interest rates and tax legislation.

News in Review

“We need to bolster our protections against this new variant”

Following the discovery of the COVID-19 Omicron variant on UK shores, Boris Johnson took to the Downing Street podium on Saturday to announce “temporary and precautionary” measures to contain the spread of the variant.

First detected in South Africa last Wednesday and labelled a ‘variant of concern’ by the World Health Organization, early evidence suggests Omicron has a higher reinfection risk. The Prime Minister commented, “Our scientists are learning more hour by hour, and it does appear that Omicron spreads very rapidly and can be spread between people who are double vaccinated.” He added, “We need to bolster our protections against this new variant… measures at the border can only ever minimise and delay the arrival of a new variant rather than stop it all together.”

Added to the ‘Red List’ last Thursday, South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Lesotho and Eswatini have since been joined by Angola, Zambia, Malawi and Mozambique. In addition, PCR tests have been introduced for everyone entering the UK (test by the end of the second day following arrival and self-isolate until a negative result) and all contacts of new variant cases must self-isolate for ten days, even if fully vaccinated. From Tuesday, face coverings became mandatory again in shops, on public transport and other inside settings in England; and the booster programme will be rapidly extended, including offering boosters to all over 18s in the UK and reducing the gap between second doses and boosters. During a briefing on Tuesday, Boris Johnson confirmed that all adults will be offered a booster jab by the end of January. As with other stages of the vaccine rollout, people will be worked through by age group.

The new measures are due to be reviewed in three weeks, by which time better information will be available on the effectiveness of vaccines.

Markets react

Global stock markets faltered last week, as concerns intensified over the impact of the variant on global economic growth, with shares in airlines and travel firms hit particularly hard. Oil prices were also sharply lower but regained some ground. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) postponed technical meetings to later this week, giving themselves more time to assess the impact of the variant on oil demand and prices. Stock markets regained some ground this week but remain tentative, as investors closely assess the threat of the variant.

Bumper Black Friday spending to beat last two years

Consumer spending on Black Friday (26 November) is expected to surpass sales figures from the past two years, according to analysts. Barclaycard, which processes around a third of all card transactions, said that spending was up 23% on last year and 2.4% up on 2019 by 5pm GMT, while financial analysts PwC predicted that Friday’s total spend would be £8.7bn – double that spent during last year’s November lockdown.

Black Friday, originally a US event, may officially be just one day, but most retailers use extended periods to entice shoppers with heavy discounts in the run-up to Christmas. After last year’s disappointing turnout, it is very much hoped that Black Friday’s strong start will continue into the festive season.

The spending figures perhaps reflect a desire on the part of UK shoppers to get their Christmas shopping done early, with this year’s sales set against a backdrop of international shipping issues and a UK-wide HGV driver shortage.

UK car output sinks to 65-year low

A shortage of computer chips has been blamed for the lowest car production level in over six decades this October. Production fell by 41% month-on-month, a situation which Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) Chief Executive Mike Hawes called “extremely worrying”. The semiconductor shortage, compounded by the closure of a Honda manufacturing plant in Swindon in 2020, has resulted in the fourth consecutive month of decline.

There are some positives, however. The production of electronic and hybrid vehicles continues apace ahead of the government’s ban on petrol and diesel cars by 2030, with production of battery electric cars rising by 17.5% to 8,454 cars in October. In total, UK car manufacturers have built over 50,000 zero-emission vehicles in 2021, according to SMMT figures.

Here to help

Financial advice is key, so please do not hesitate to get in contact with any questions or concerns you may have.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

Residential Property Review – November 2021

Spending pledges for housing in Autumn Budget

In his Autumn Budget delivered at the end of October, Chancellor Rishi Sunak committed more cash to building new homes on derelict or unused land in England, as part of a £24bn fund earmarked for housing.

The plans will see 160,000 greener homes built on brownfield land and the addition of up to 180,000 new affordable homes. £9m was also pledged for 100 ‘pocket parks’, which promise to be “safe and usable green spaces” in urban settings.

Delivering his Budget speech, the Chancellor said, “We’re investing more in housing and homeownership too, with a multi-year housing settlement totalling nearly £24bn: £11.5bn to build up to 180,000 new affordable homes. And we’re investing an extra £1.8bn, enough to bring 1,500 hectares of brownfield land into use, meet our commitment to invest £10bn in new housing and unlock a million new homes.“

First-time buyers at the fore

September saw transaction activity spike for a third time this year in the residential market, with house sales 63% above their 2017-19 monthly average. A dip in activity is expected to emerge in the October data, following the end of the Stamp Duty holiday.

Meanwhile, first-time buyers (FTBs), who had previously benefited less from the tax holiday, became the largest buyer type, although expected rises in mortgage rates may soon dampen some enthusiasm. Despite the Bank of England voting to hold Base Rate at 0.1% on 4 November, analysts expect inflationary pressures to force the Bank to act soon.

Rises in Base Rate would inevitably translate into higher mortgage costs. According to Savills, however, the immediate effect on the housing market is likely to be limited, given that any rise is expected to be relatively small and that most mortgages are on fixed rates.

High costs stop homes from going green

A recent survey by think tank Onward and J.L. Partners, has revealed that Brits want to see the housing sector modernised – but are not necessarily willing to put their money where their mouth is.

Currently, three in 10 homes in England and Wales built pre-war still carry an EPC rating of E or below and heating these inefficient properties is responsible for 70% of housing emissions. Modernising the housing sector would play a vital role in the UK’s efforts to reach net-zero emissions given that homes are responsible for a fifth of all UK greenhouse gas emissions.

However, the study found that less than half of respondents would be willing to pay higher taxes for the UK to hit its green targets. Even those who agreed in principle often balked at the price tag and home improvement policies saw their biggest decline in support after respondents were told the cost of making the changes.

The plans will see 160,000 greener homes built on brownfield land and the addition of up to 180,000 new affordable homes. £9m was also pledged for 100 ‘pocket parks’, which promise to be “safe and usable green spaces” in urban settings

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House Prices Headline statistics

House Price Index (Sept 2021)* 141.6*

Average House Price £269,945

Monthly Change 2.50%

Annual Change 11.80%

*(Jan 2015 = 100)

  • Average house prices in the UK increased by 11.8% in the year to September 2021
  • On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in the UK increased by 2.5% between August and September 2021
  • House price growth was strongest in the North West where prices increased by 16.8% in the year to September 2021.

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House Prices Price change by region

Region   Monthly Change (%) Annual Change (%) Average Price (£)
England   2.9 11.5 £287,895
Northern Ireland
(Quarter 3 – 2021)		 3.0 10.7 £159,109
Scotland -0.4 12.3 £180,334
Wales   2.5 15.4 £196,216
East Midlands 4.9 14.7 £231,318
East of England 1.7 9.3 £327,982
London -2.9 2.8 £507,253
North East 3.8 13.3 £152,776
North West 5.3 16.8 £203,661
South East 3.0 11.7 £370,886
South West 4.0 11.7 £301,327
West Midlands Region 3.1 11.7 £231,501
Yorkshire & The Humber 4.0 11.9 £192,354

Source: The Land Registry
Release date: 17/11/21 Next data release: 15/12/21

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Average monthly price by property type – Sept 2021

Property Type Annual Increase
Detached
£419,714		 13.8%
Semi-detached
£258,757		 12.4%
Terraced
£221,773		 12.7%
Flat / maisonette
£222,462		 6.5%

Source: The Land Registry
Release date: 17/11/21


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Housing market outlook

“With the Bank of England expected to react to building inflation risks by raising rates as soon as next month, and further such rises predicted over the next 12 months, we do expect house buying demand to cool in the months ahead as borrowing costs increase. That said, borrowing costs will still be low by historical standards, and raising a deposit is likely to remain the primary obstacle for many.“

Russell Galley, Managing Director at Halifax
Source: Halifax November 2021

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Contains HM Land Registry data © Crown copyright and database right 2017. This data is licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

All details are correct at the time of writing (18 November 2021)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

Commercial Property Market Review – November 2021

Business rates boost for hospitality and leisure

The Autumn Budget provided good news for badly hit shops, restaurants, bars and gyms, with a temporary 50% cut in business rates in England announced by the Chancellor.

These sectors, which suffered particularly badly during the pandemic, will be able to claim a 50% discount on their bills up to a maximum of £110,000, a tax cut worth almost £1.7bn. They weren’t the only ones to receive a financial boost though; a planned annual increase in rates for all firms was scrapped for the second consecutive year.

Mike Hughes, NAEA Propertymark Commercial Board Member, welcomed the Chancellor’s business rates announcement. He commented, “Most retail, hospitality, and leisure businesses are still fighting hard to get back on an even keel following the COVID-19 pandemic and so the certainty of continued business rates relief for these sectors is a great help. This will aid those business owners and investors looking to prepare their properties for sale and give purchasers the confidence to progress with acquisitions.“

ESG at the forefront post-COP26

A new study by Deepki has shown that more than half of the UK commercial property sector expects an increased focus on environment, social and governance (ESG) issues in the aftermath of COP26, while two thirds believe the World Green Building Council’s 2050 net-zero targets are achievable.

Many industry leaders acknowledge that the commercial property sector will play a vital role in addressing climate change, given that the built environment is currently responsible for about 40% of global carbon emissions. At COP26 in Glasgow, a panel event entitled ‘Commercial buildings: A real asset in addressing climate change?‘ discussed the obstacles and necessary action for meaningful progress and cross-sectoral action on environmental standards.

A primary challenge remains the investment needed to decarbonise commercial buildings. With almost half of respondents agreeing that retrofitting or addressing the carbon footprint of older buildings is a priority, analysts predict significant improvements could be made in the years ahead.

EPC B rating still elusive despite demand

According to Savills, more than a billion square feet of UK office stock has an EPC rating of C or below, which means 87% of buildings fall short of the proposed minimum B rating.

This target comes from a consultation held by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy between March and June 2021, which set itself the goal of implementing a framework to ensure all non-domestic rented buildings achieve an EPC rating of at least B by 2030. The responses to the consultation are due to be published later this year.

Despite the abundance of unsustainable space, there is growing demand for buildings with high EPC standards. Indeed, Savills reports that demand for office space that can satisfy ESG credentials is currently outpacing supply.

Analysts suggest that tenants are attracted to sustainable office spaces by reputational benefits and lower energy bills, while growing demand could allow landlords who make their office stock comply with the new rules to benefit from higher occupancy rates.

Many industry leaders acknowledge that the commercial property sector will play a vital role in addressing climate change

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Commercial property currently for sale in the UK

  • Regions with the highest number of commercial properties for sale currently are South West England and London
  • Northern Ireland currently has the lowest number of commercial properties for sale (23 properties)
  • There are currently 1,427 commercial properties for sale in London, the average asking price is £1,594,264.

Region No. properties AVG. asking price
London 1,427 £1,594,264
South East England 1,206 £2,063,460
East Midlands 760 £953,869
East of England 801 £664,106
North East England 800 £302,180
North West England 1,359 £396,723
South West England 1,518 £823,806
West Midlands 1,081 £498,428
Yorkshire and The Humber 1,121 £356,416
Isle of Man 52 £477,082
Scotland 1,143 £334,552
Wales 784 £432,460
Northern Ireland 23 £630,812

Source: Zoopla, data extracted 18 November 2021

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Commercial property outlook

Occupier demand – broken down by sector



  • A headline net balance of +18% of contributors reported a pick-up in overall tenant demand over Q3
  • A net balance of +56% reported an increase in demand for industrial space
  • Occupier demand for office space showed the first positive reading since early 2018 at +7%
  • The retail sector remains subdued at -18%.

Source: RICS, UK Commercial Property Market Survey, Q3 2021

Availability – broken down by sector



  • The supply of available industrial space remains negative, with the latest net balance standing at -38% in Q3
  • Rising vacancies for office and retail continue to be seen, returning net balances of +28% and +34% respectively in Q3.

Source: RICS, UK Commercial Property Market Survey, Q3 2021

All details are correct at the time of writing (18 November 2021)

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It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

Switch from SVRs for better rates

Navigating the labyrinth of financial acronyms can leave even the savviest money managers with a headache. But if you are a mortgage holder, it might be time to become familiar with one important abbreviation: SVR or Standard Variable Rate.

Ups and downs

There’s a good chance you’ll be switched to an SVR when your existing mortgage deal comes to an end. Whether you currently have a tracker, fixed rate or discounted mortgage, being moved to an SVR might mean you end up paying over the odds, perhaps without even realising.

This is because SVRs rarely offer the most competitive rates. The SVR interest rate is usually linked to a percentage above the bank’s base rate, which means it can rise and fall. As a result, you’ll be more vulnerable to potential interest rate hikes in the future.

Switch and save

In a complex environment, getting clear advice can really pay. If you’re locked into a mortgage deal with exit charges, you don’t have to wait until it ends: we can help you find a deal three or six months before your lock-in period finishes. After two Bank of England base rate cuts last year, mortgage rates have remained at record lows, so now could be the perfect time to see if you can save money by switching to a better rate.

As a mortgage is secured against your home or property, it could be repossessed if you do not keep up mortgage repayments.

FCA highlights need for adequate protection cover

Back in February, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) released its latest Financial Lives Survey. Firstly, and unsurprisingly, it revealed the severe strain the COVID-19 pandemic had put on the nation’s finances. Secondly, around a quarter of UK adults were showing signs of poor financial resilience, including over-indebtedness, low savings and low or irregular earnings.

The survey was carried out in two stages, with the first analysing the period between August 2019 and February 2020, and the second examining the financial impact of COVID-19 between March and October 2020. Even before the pandemic struck, there were points of concern among some of the more positive findings, including a general lack of protection insurance cover.

The protection gap

Positively, the number of people holding an insurance product of any kind increased to 88% in 2020, from 81% in 2017. However, with 53% of respondents holding no protection products at all (albeit less than the 57% that said the same in 2017), the FCA highlighted what it called ‘a significant protection gap’.

The gap was particularly pronounced among young adults aged between 18- 24, as well as vulnerable consumers and those who lack confidence in managing their finances. Concerningly, many people who fit these criteria have families who, were they to die or become too ill to work, would suffer significant financial hardship. Younger generations and those in vulnerable groups may have many pressures on their finances, but it is important to take out adequate protection cover if possible – perhaps with familial help and encouragement, depending on the circumstances.

The value of investments and income from them may go down. You may not get back the original amount invested. A pension is a long-term investment. The fund value may fluctuate and can go down. Your eventual income may depend on the size of the fund at retirement, future interest rates and tax legislation.

Sudden Wealth Syndrome: coping with a windfall

You’d be likely to feel happy and excited if you received a large windfall suddenly or unexpectedly. Whether you’re receiving an inheritance, have become a successful entrepreneur, or perhaps you’re selling your business, the reality is that for many, sudden wealth can feel overwhelming.

It can even result in a recognised psychological condition called ‘Sudden Wealth Syndrome’. Symptoms vary from person to person, but can include feelings of isolation, uncertainty about the future, or fear of losing their new-found financial stability.

Adapting to a new financial status can lead to poor mental health and even result in self-destructive behaviour, such as excessive spending or risky investments. Unfortunately, news stories about people who won millions in the lottery before losing it all, or getting into debt, are all too common. Our mental state has a significant impact on how we handle our money, in fact 46% of people who struggle with debt were found to have a mental health issue1.

How to avoid the negative impacts of sudden wealth

Although we can’t avoid all the negative feelings associated with sudden wealth, there are things we can do to safeguard our finances:

  • Don’t act in haste – take your time before making any decisions. In the meantime, put your windfall into an easy-access savings account(s), within Financial Services Compensation Scheme limits, where it can accrue interest

•     Stay under the radar – Sudden Wealth Syndrome can lead to anxiety and paranoia that people only like you because you have money, so by keeping things discreet, it will help alleviate these feelings and assist clear decision-making

•     Take professional advice – investing or spending large sums without advice can be catastrophic for your finances. It’s vital to take professional investment and tax planning advice.

To ensure your new-found wealth works hard for you and your family, we’re on hand to help you make wise decisions.

1Money and Mental Health Policy Institution, 2019

The value of investments and income from them may go down. You may not get back the original amount invested.

News In Review

“If we are serious about going for growth, then 2022 has to be a year of detail and delivery”

During a week which saw the government confirm it was cancelling the Leeds leg of the HS2 high-speed rail line, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said more needed to be done to end the North-South divide and ensure economic growth was evenly spread around the UK. Speaking in South Shields during the CBI’s annual conference, the business group’s Director General Tony Danker said, “benign neglect” in parts of the country over decades had led to a “branch line economy” and warned that levelling up could not be left to the free market alone.

The Prime Minister also addressed the conference on Monday, speaking about his green industrial revolution. Responding to Mr Johnson’s speech the CBI Director General said, “By making decarbonisation one of our economy’s big bets for growth, we can create the high value sectors, firms, skills and investment needed to level up the economy.” Mr Danker added, “If we are serious about going for growth, then 2022 has to be a year of detail and delivery.”

Input prices hit fresh high

A closely-watched survey released on Tuesday suggests the UK economy continued to grow in November. The preliminary reading of the IHS Markit/CIPS Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to 57.7, marginally down from October’s final figure of 57.8. With any value over 50 representing expansion, this latest reading does indicate a strong rise in private sector output.

The PMI survey also reported record cost pressures, with input price inflation rising at the fastest rate since the Index began in 1998, fuelled by higher wages and a spike in prices paid for fuel, energy and raw materials. This prompted IHS Markit Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson, to suggest the survey’s findings pave the way for a rate hike when the Monetary Policy Committee next convene in mid-December. Mr Williamson said, “A combination of sustained buoyant business growth, further job market gains and record inflationary pressures gives a green light for interest rates to rise in December.”

Rate decision “finely balanced”

Speaking before release of the PMI data, however, two key Bank of England officials cast doubt on the certainty of a December rate rise. Governor Andrew Bailey told the Sunday Times that risks to the economy remain “two-sided”  with slowing growth and rising inflation. Two days earlier, at a conference in Bristol, the Bank’s Chief Economist Huw Pill had admitted the weight of evidence was shifting towards a rate increase but noted that the decision would be “finely balanced”. Mr Pill added, “I genuinely do not know today how I will vote.”

Retailers enjoy early Christmas cheer

Official data released last Friday showed retail sales grew more strongly than expected in October, following five consecutive months posting no growth at all. In total, sales volumes rose by 0.8%, with the clothing and toy sectors being the key drivers of growth. The latest GfK Consumer Confidence Index, released the same day, also brought welcome cheer to retailers preparing for Christmas, with November’s headline figure rising for the first time in four months.

Commenting on the retail sales data, British Retail Consortium Chief Executive Helen Dickinson said, “Retailers will be relieved by the improvement in sales as they enter the final straight in the run up to Christmas. Retailers are hopeful that demand will continue right through the golden quarter, however, challenges remain, with higher prices looming and many households facing rising energy bills.”

Borrowing down less than expected

Public sector finance statistics for October, also published on Friday, showed borrowing fell by less than analysts had predicted, with rising debt interest payments and the cost of the COVID vaccination programme offsetting higher tax receipts. In total, the government borrowed £18.8bn last month, just £200m below the figure recorded in October 2020 and £5bn more than the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. Despite the relatively disappointing monthly data, overall borrowing in the current fiscal year to date remains over £100bn lower than last year’s comparable figure.

Attempts to lower oil prices

The UK is set to release up to 1.5m barrels of oil from its strategic reserves, joining the US, China, India, Japan and South Korea in an attempt to bring down energy and petrol prices after Opec+ agreed to only increase production gradually.

Here to help

Financial advice is key, so please do not hesitate to get in contact with any questions or concerns you may have.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.