“If we are serious about going for growth, then 2022 has
to be a year of detail and delivery”
During a
week which saw the government confirm it was cancelling the Leeds leg of the
HS2 high-speed rail line, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said more
needed to be done to end the North-South divide and ensure economic growth was
evenly spread around the UK. Speaking in South Shields during the CBI’s annual
conference, the business group’s Director General Tony Danker said, “benign
neglect” in parts of the country over decades had led to a “branch line
economy” and warned that levelling up could not be left to the free market
alone.
The
Prime Minister also addressed the conference on Monday, speaking about his
green industrial revolution. Responding to Mr Johnson’s speech the CBI Director
General said, “By making decarbonisation one of our economy’s big bets for
growth, we can create the high value sectors, firms, skills and investment
needed to level up the economy.” Mr Danker added, “If we are serious
about going for growth, then 2022 has to be a year of detail and delivery.”
Input prices hit fresh high
A closely-watched
survey released on Tuesday suggests the UK economy continued to grow in November. The
preliminary reading of the IHS Markit/CIPS Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index
(PMI) dipped to 57.7, marginally down from October’s final figure of 57.8. With
any value over 50 representing expansion, this latest reading does indicate a
strong rise in private sector output.
The PMI survey also
reported record cost pressures, with input
price inflation rising at the fastest rate since the Index began in 1998,
fuelled by higher wages and a spike in prices paid for fuel, energy and raw
materials. This prompted IHS Markit
Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson, to suggest the survey’s findings pave the way for a rate
hike when the Monetary Policy Committee next
convene in mid-December.
Mr Williamson said, “A combination of sustained buoyant business growth,
further job market gains and record inflationary pressures gives a green light
for interest rates to rise in December.”
Rate decision “finely balanced”
Speaking before release of the PMI data, however, two key Bank of
England officials cast doubt on the
certainty of a December rate rise. Governor Andrew Bailey told the Sunday Times
that risks to the economy remain “two-sided” with slowing growth and rising inflation. Two
days earlier, at a conference in Bristol, the Bank’s Chief
Economist Huw Pill had admitted the weight of evidence was shifting towards a rate
increase but noted that the decision would be “finely balanced”. Mr
Pill added, “I genuinely do not know today how I will vote.”
Retailers enjoy early Christmas cheer
Official data
released last Friday showed retail sales grew more strongly than expected in
October, following five consecutive months posting no growth at all. In total,
sales volumes rose by 0.8%, with the clothing and toy sectors being the key
drivers of growth. The latest GfK Consumer Confidence Index, released the same
day, also brought welcome cheer to retailers preparing for Christmas, with
November’s headline figure rising for the first time in four months.
Commenting on the
retail sales data, British Retail Consortium Chief Executive Helen Dickinson
said, “Retailers will be relieved by the improvement in sales as they
enter the final straight in the run up to Christmas. Retailers are hopeful that
demand will continue right through the golden quarter, however, challenges
remain, with higher prices looming and many households facing rising energy
bills.”
Borrowing down
less than expected
Public sector
finance statistics for October, also published on Friday, showed borrowing fell
by less than analysts had predicted, with rising debt interest payments and the
cost of the COVID vaccination programme offsetting higher tax receipts. In
total, the government borrowed £18.8bn last month, just £200m below the figure
recorded in October 2020 and £5bn more than the consensus forecast in a Reuters
poll of economists. Despite the relatively disappointing monthly data, overall
borrowing in the current fiscal year to date remains over £100bn lower than
last year’s comparable figure.
Attempts to lower oil prices
The UK is set to release up to
1.5m barrels of oil from its strategic reserves, joining the US, China, India,
Japan and South Korea in an attempt to bring down energy and petrol prices
after Opec+ agreed to only increase production gradually.
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