Bank sanctions
December rate rise
The Bank of England
(BoE) sanctioned a 15-basis-point increase in its
main interest rate on 16 December and warned that inflation is now likely to
hit 6% by spring.
At
its latest meeting held in mid-December, the BoE’s nine-member Monetary Policy
Committee voted by an 8-1 majority to raise Bank Rate to 0.25% from its previous
historic low of 0.1%. This was the Bank’s first rate hike in more than three
years and resulted in the BoE becoming the world’s first major central bank to
raise rates since the onset of the pandemic.
The
announcement was made a day after the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
released the latest inflation data, which showed the cost of living is now
rising at its fastest rate for 10 years. In the 12 months to November, the rate
of inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), surged to 5.1%.
This was significantly higher than October’s 4.2% figure and above all
forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists.
Speaking
after announcing the rate hike, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said that an outlook
for “more persistent inflation pressures” had forced the Bank
to act. Mr Bailey said, “We’re concerned
about inflation in the medium term and we’re seeing things now that can
threaten that. So that’s why we have
to act.”
The
Governor also revealed that the Bank now expects the CPI inflation rate to peak
at around 6% in April, which would be three times above the BoE target figure.
Although the rate is then expected to fall back across the second half of 2022,
the Bank acknowledged that more “modest
tightening of monetary policy” over the three-year forecast period “is likely to be necessary” in order to
ensure inflation sustainably returns to its 2% target level.
Gross
domestic product (GDP) figures released last month show the UK economic
recovery had already lost momentum even before the emergence of the Omicron
variant.
The
latest GDP statistics show the economy expanded by just 0.1% in October, much
weaker than the 0.4% consensus forecast predicted in a Reuters poll of
economists. Growth was largely driven by a rise in face-to-face GP appointments
at surgeries in England, although this was offset by a decline in industrial
output, with production falling in both the electricity and gas, and mining and
quarrying sectors.
In
addition, a revision to previous GDP data revealed that the economy had
actually grown at a slower pace during the third quarter. The new estimate puts
July to September’s growth rate at 1.1%, rather than 1.3% as initially thought.
As a result, the UK economy remains 1.5% smaller than its pre-pandemic level.
More
recently, economic activity has been hit by the spread of the Omicron variant.
Preliminary data from last month’s IHS Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index
(PMI) pointed to a sharp slowdown in UK private sector growth as rising virus
cases hit consumer services spending.
The
flash reading of the PMI’s composite output index fell to a 10-month low of
53.2 in December, leading CIPS Group Director Duncan Brock to describe the data
as “grim news” for the UK economy. Mr
Brook also said that positive gains over the last ten months had been “wiped out by yet another round of
restrictions and curbs on consumers and businesses.”
Just
before Christmas, the Chancellor unveiled a £1bn support package to help
businesses hit by rising cases.
Markets
(Data compiled by TOMD)
Major
global indices closed December in positive territory. Despite escalating virus
cases, stocks were supported by hopes that the Omicron variant is milder,
potentially limiting fiscal impact as vaccines have allowed many economies to
remain open.
In
the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the year up 14.3%, registering its best annual gain
for five years, as it continued to recover from its pandemic-induced lows of
2020. The FTSE 250, dominated by more domestically focused stocks, rose by
14.6%, while the AIM closed the year up just over 5%.
Wall
Street led the way, with the Dow close to a record high at the end of December,
rising over 5% in the month and by 18.72% in 2021, while the NASDAQ closed the year up over 21%. The US economy has proven resilient in the face
of pandemic-related challenges. As with other global economies, inflation will
be a focal point for investors going into 2022. Meanwhile, the
Nikkei 225 ended the year on 28,791.71, up over 4.9%, its highest year-end
level since 1989, and the Euro Stoxx 50 closed the year up just over 20% on
4,298.41.
On
the foreign exchanges, sterling closed the year at $1.35 against the US dollar.
The euro closed at €1.18 against sterling and at $1.13 against the US dollar.
Brent crude closed the year trading at around $78 a barrel, an annual gain of over 51%, its largest in 12 years. The price was lifted by higher demand as investors bet that surging virus cases would not derail the global economic recovery. Cautious production increases by OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies, also helped to support the price. Gold is trading at around $1,805 a troy ounce, a loss of over 4.8% on the year. The price has been dampened by a stronger US dollar and the threat of a pullback in stimulus by major central banks, deterring many investors who favoured equities.
Labour
market remains resilient
The latest set of
employment statistics published by ONS suggests the UK labour market has
withstood the end of the government’s furlough scheme and remains in a
relatively robust state of health.
According
to the most recent tax data, the number of people in payrolled employment
continued to grow strongly, rising by a further 257,000 in November. This was
the largest monthly increase since records began in 2014 and lifted the total
number of workers on company payrolls to 29.4 million, 424,000 above
pre-pandemic levels.
There
was also positive news in terms of unemployment, with the headline rate in the
three months to October falling to 4.2%; down from 4.3% in the previous
three-month period. This suggests withdrawal of furlough at the end of
September has not sparked a significant rise in redundancies. Although ONS did
caution that some workers may still be working notice periods, it also said
business survey responses suggest the number of redundancies was likely to be
relatively small.
The
data also showed job vacancies rising to another record high, with a total of
1.22 million jobs advertised in the three months to November. ONS did, however,
report a slowdown in the rate of growth in vacancies.
Omicron
hits retail sector
While the latest
official statistics revealed stronger than expected retail sales growth in November,
more recent survey evidence shows concerns over the Omicron variant has hit
activity on the High Street.
ONS
data showed that total retail sales volumes rose by 1.4% in November, beating
analysts’ expectations of a 0.8% rise. ONS Statistician Heather Bovill said
sales were boosted by “strong Black Friday and pre-Christmas trading” adding
that “clothing stores fared particularly well and exceeded their
pre-pandemic level for the first time.”
The
latest Distributive Trades Survey published by the Confederation of British
Industry (CBI), however, suggests sales growth fell back sharply last month,
with its headline net balance of retailers reporting sales growth slumping to
+8 in December, down from +39 the previous month. This represents the lowest
reading since non-essential shops were in lockdown last March.
Perhaps
unsurprisingly, the survey also found that sales are expected to grow at a
similarly lacklustre pace in January. Commenting on the data, CBI Principal
Economist Ben Jones said, “Our December survey confirms what we’ve been
hearing anecdotally about Omicron’s chilling impact on activity on the High
Street, with retail sales growth slowing and expectations for the coming month
sharply downgraded.”
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