Lights, camera, action!

Did you know that Jackie Chan’s stunt team has been blacklisted by all insurance companies, leaving Chan to pay out himself for any injuries? Fortunately, for most people it is considerably easier to get covered, so there is no excuse to be uninsured.

Over a third of people say they are more likely to buy protection insurance because of their experiences during the pandemic1, indicating how the devastating impact of COVID has clearly led many to reassess their priorities and to seek the reassurances provided by protection insurance. This reassurance comes from hearing that 98% of protection claims were paid in 20202. Witnessing the pandemic’s impact on the health of others was cited as the main reason people were now more likely to take out protection insurance.

Affordability

Perceived cost, however, remains a barrier for some. Indeed, almost a third of people say they haven’t taken out protection because they think it would be too expensive.

It’s a wrap

Protection is a crucial component of a balanced financial strategy and, with policies starting at just a few pounds a month, it is a small price to pay for the peace of mind it provides.

Take action in 2022, to protect those you love.

1Hymans Robertson, 2021

2ABI, 2021

Economic Review – January 2022

Economy regains pre-pandemic size

The UK economy grew strongly in November to move beyond its pre-COVID level with increasing momentum recorded across all industry sectors prior to the arrival of the Omicron variant.

Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the economy grew by 0.9% in November. This was much stronger than the consensus forecast predicted in a Reuters poll of economists and saw the UK economy finally recover all of the ground lost during the pandemic, with November’s output figure 0.7% above its February 2020 level.

Commenting on the figures, ONS Chief Economist Grant Fitzner said, “The economy grew strongly in the month before Omicron struck, with architects, retailers, couriers and accountants having a bumper month. Construction also recovered from several weak months as many raw materials became easier to get hold of.”

Economic activity over the last two months, however, has clearly been hit by the spread of the Omicron variant. Data from IHS Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reported a sharp slowdown in UK private sector growth in December and activity slipped further in January as Omicron again hit consumer-facing companies.

Disruption due to the rise in virus cases also contributed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cutting its 2022 global growth forecast. In its latest economic musings released on 25 January, the international soothsayer noted that the world economy was in a ‘weaker position’ than previously expected and downgraded its prediction for global growth by half a percentage point to 4.4%.

The updated IMF forecast also suggests the UK economy is set to grow more slowly than previously anticipated, with this year’s growth estimate cut to 4.7%. While this does represent a notable reduction from last October’s 5.0% forecast, it still leaves the UK as the fastest growing economy among the G7 industrialised nations.

Inflation at 30-year high

Official statistics released last month showed the UK headline rate of inflation now stands at its highest level since March 1992, with survey data pointing to further cost pressures in the pipeline.

The latest ONS figures show that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate – which compares prices in the current month with the same period a year earlier – rose to 5.4% in December. This was 0.2% ahead of market expectations and a sizeable jump compared to the previous month’s rate of 5.1%.

Rising prices across the food, hospitality, household goods and clothing sectors were all key drivers of the increase, while fuel prices also remained at recent high levels. With gas and electricity bills set for a further sharp hike in April, some economists are now predicting that the CPI rate is likely to hit 7% by the spring.

Two recently released surveys also point to further inflationary pressures as firms continue to grapple with rapidly rising cost burdens. January’s IHS Markit/CIPS PMI report stated that cost pressures remain ‘elevated at near-record levels,’ while the Confederation of British Industry’s Industrial Trends Survey for the quarter to January showed ‘intense and escalating cost and price pressures’ with manufacturers reporting average costs growing at the quickest rate since 1980.

January’s data has intensified pressure on Bank of England (BoE) policymakers to raise interest rates again in a bid to dampen consumer demand and bring inflation back down towards the Bank’s 2% target. In December, the BoE became the first major central bank to raise rates since the onset of the pandemic when it announced a 15-basis-point increase taking Bank Rate to 0.25%. A recent Reuters poll found most economists expect a second hike to be sanctioned when the next meeting of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee concludes on 3 February.

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

At the end of January, major global markets largely closed in negative territory as investors monitored developments between the Ukraine and Russia, and concerns over rising interest rates weighed on sentiment. 

In the UK, the FTSE 100 recorded its second consecutive monthly increase to end January up 1.08%, while the FTSE 250 and AIM both lost ground to close the month on 21,926.62 and 1,094.97 respectively. Meanwhile, in Japan the Nikkei 225 ended the month on 27,001.98, down over 6%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 closed January down 2.88% on 4,174.60.

The prospect of higher US interest rates impacted markets towards month end, as the Fed signalled that the cycle of rate hikes will commence in March. With US inflation running at its highest level in almost 40 years, and following a volatile month of trading, the Dow Jones closed January down 3.32%, while the NASDAQ closed down almost 9%, its worst January since 2008.

On the foreign exchanges, sterling closed the month at $1.34 against the US dollar. The euro closed at €1.19 against sterling and at $1.12 against the US dollar.

The oil price continued its recent rise ahead of a key OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) meeting in early February. Supported by supply shortages and political tension in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, Brent Crude closed the month trading at around $88 a barrel, a gain of over 13%. Gold is trading at around $1,795 a troy ounce, a loss of around 0.59% on the month.

Wages squeezed by rising inflation

Although last month’s batch of labour market statistics revealed record job creation, the data also showed pay growth is failing to keep up with the rising cost of living.

According to the latest figures released by ONS, the number of payrolled employees continues to grow strongly, with companies adding another 184,000 staff to their payrolls in December. The data also showed that unemployment remains on a downward trend, with the headline rate falling to 4.1% in the three months to November, the lowest figure since June 2020.

However, despite this positive news, the data also revealed that pay is now being squeezed by the rapid rise in inflation. While the latest figures did report relatively strong levels of pay growth, wages were found to be rising less quickly than prices over the same period. As a result, real average weekly earnings fell by 1% in November, the first decline in inflation-adjusted pay since July 2020.

Responding to the data, the Resolution Foundation think tank said, ‘Real wages officially began to fall in November, and the current period of shrinking pay packets is likely to get worse before it starts to ease in the second half of 2022.’

Retail sales fall sharply

The latest retail sales statistics revealed a large decline in sales volumes during December due to this year’s earlier Christmas shopping patterns and rising COVID cases deterring High Street visits.

ONS data showed that total retail sales volumes fell by 3.7% in December, significantly weaker than analysts’ expectations. This decline did, however, follow a particularly strong set of figures in November as reports of potential shortages in the run-up to Christmas encouraged consumers to do much of their festive shopping earlier than usual.

Commenting on the data, ONS Statistician Heather Bovill said, “After strong pre-Christmas trading in November, retail sales fell across the board in December, with feedback from retailers suggesting Omicron impacted on footfall. However, despite the fall in December, retail sales are still stronger than before the pandemic.”

Evidence from the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests sales remained below seasonal norms in January – almost a third of retailers described sales as poor for the time of year compared with under a tenth who said they were strong, the worst reading on this measure since March 2021. The CBI said it was not surprised sales were viewed as disappointing given the spread of Omicron, tighter restrictions and increased consumer caution.

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for

any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

News in Review

“It’s likely households will face a cost-of-living crunch for much of the year”

The biggest economic story of last week is something impacting everyone’s pockets – inflation. Data released from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday revealed that surging food and energy prices had pushed inflation to a near 30-year high of 5.4% in December, up from 5.1% the previous month.

With the dual forces of rising prices and stagnant wages coming into play, the data revealed that increases in the prices of clothing, household goods, restaurants, hotels and furniture also contributed to December’s rise in the cost of living. There are calls on the government to take action to protect consumers as prices continue to rise in line with expectations, especially with the situation set to intensify in the spring when the energy price cap rises and National Insurance increases take effect.

Lead Economist at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Alpesh Paleja, commented on the latest inflation figures, “We’ve not seen the end of rising inflation yet. We expect it to peak in the months ahead, not least if, as expected, the energy price cap is raised. With prices on the rise and real wages already falling, it’s likely households will face a cost-of-living crunch for much of this year.”

Omicron takes its toll on the High Street

As virus cases began to escalate in the run-up to the festive period, the High Street was impacted as shoppers chose to stay away, with declines in footfall reported. Consequently, retail sales fell by 3.7% in December, with non-food store sales volumes declining 7.1% in the month. Although food sales fell by 1% in December, volumes were above pre-pandemic levels. This data is set against very strong sales in November, amid reports there would be some shortages in the run-up to Christmas, prompting people to shop early. Heather Bovill, Deputy Director for Surveys and Economic Indicators at ONS commented on their data release, “Despite the fall in December, retail sales are still stronger than before the pandemic, with over a quarter of sales now made online.” Fuel sales were also impacted – volumes fell by 4.7% in the month as Plan B restrictions in England meant more people worked from home.

Property market “strength and resilience”

December property stats landed last week, with HMRC data showing that 100,110 transactions were conducted in the month. This brings total UK property transactions to nearly 1.5 million last year, a 26% increase on pre-pandemic levels, resulting in 2021 being the busiest year for the housing market since 2007. Former RICS Residential Chairman Jeremy Leaf commented on the findings, “These numbers interestingly demonstrate market strength and resilience even in the build-up to Christmas and withdrawal of government economic support in September… However, we have moved on since December. Activity and price rises are slowing a little, not least because of the continuing shortage of stock but concerns about rising inflation and mortgage rates is also compromising confidence when it comes to taking on debt.”

According to National Association of Estate Agents Propertymark data, the average number of house hunters registered per estate agent branch stood at 461 in December, the highest number on record and an increase of 33% from December 2020. However, the number of properties available per member branch stood at just 19 in December, the lowest figure ever recorded.

Updated UK forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revealed on Tuesday that expected UK growth for 2022 has been cut to 4.7%, down from a previous estimate of 5%. However, the UK remains set to be the fastest growing economy in the G7 industrialised nations for a second consecutive year. The IMF warned uncertainties such as the emergence of new COVID-19 variants could ‘prolong the pandemic and induce renewed economic disruptions.’ 

Markets

With concerns over military conflict in Ukraine mounting, global stock markets faltered early this week, as investors embraced safe-haven assets including the US dollar. Uncertainty also weighed over the imminent Federal Reserve meeting and the likelihood of an interest rate rise, as well as the possible removal of stimulus measures. The IMF downgrade impacted Wall Street stocks further on Tuesday. After a one-month low on Monday, the FTSE 100 benefited from strength in banking and commodity stocks.

Here to help

Financial advice is key, so please do not hesitate to get in contact with any questions or concerns you may have.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

Time to consider external factors

The Autumn Budget may have left a sense that nothing much had changed in the realm of personal financial planning, as no major changes to Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, Income Tax or pensions, were announced. Despite this, a prime consideration needs to be how external factors such as frozen rates and higher inflation, could impact your finances and what action you need to take before the end of the tax year to utilise any exemptions and allowances. 

Your pension 

The Annual Allowance remains at £40,000 and the Lifetime Allowance remains at £1,073,100. As these allowances haven’t increased with inflation, it effectively means those saving to the maximum extent possible with tax concessions can save less in real terms each year. 

Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs)  

The annual ISA limit has been frozen at £20,000 for five years. If the allowance had increased with inflation every year since 2017, it would stand at £21,440 today, sheltering an additional £1,440 from the taxman. JISAs celebrated their tenth birthday in November – the allowance remains at £9,000. 

Inheritance Tax (IHT) 

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data for April to September 2021 shows that IHT receipts totalled £3.1bn, £0.7bn higher than the same period in 2020. With the nil rate band and residence nil rate band frozen until April 2026 at £325,000 and £175,000 respectively, don’t overlook the importance of effective estate planning. 

Dividend Tax 

Last September, the government revealed that it would increase Dividend Tax by 1.25 percentage points from 6 April 2022 to help fund health and social care. This means investors will have to pay more on any income from shares held outside ISAs and above the £2,000 Dividend Allowance. 

Variables 

It’s time to tune in to all the variables at play, affecting your finances; frozen allowances, inflation, interest rates and taxation. Talk to us for help with your individual circumstances. 

The value of investments and income from them may go down. You may not get back the original amount invested. A pension is a long-term investment. The fund value may fluctuate and can go down. Your eventual income may depend on the size of the fund at retirement, future interest rates and tax legislation. Inheritance Tax Planning is not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 

‘Special dividends’ boost investor income

In Q3 2021, UK dividends reached £34.9bn, an impressive 89% year-on-year rise1. Part of this rise can be attributed to large one-off special dividends, a trend expected to continue in Q4. Excluding special dividends, the underlying total in Q3 was £27.7bn, a 52.6% increase. In context, this year-on-year rebound, is comparable with a pandemic-stricken Q3 2020, in which dividends halved. 

Managing Director of Corporate Markets at Link, Ian Stokes commented on the findings, “The good news is that we have consistently seen companies deliver more in dividends than we thought likely at the beginning of the year… Companies were progressively less impacted by each lockdown and many of them took action to bolster their balance sheets during 2020… Dividend firepower is now much stronger as a result.” 

Referring to the dominance of special dividends, he added, “The boom in special dividends reflects how some companies are making catch-up payments, some are capitalising on very strong demand, and others are seizing the moment to sell assets at a time of high prices and numerous cash-rich potential buyers.” 

Although good news for income investors, dividend growth may be driven by sectors which might not perform as well in the future, which highlights the importance of diversifying across different sectors. 

1Link Group, 2021 

The value of investments and income from them may go down. You may not get back the original amount invested. 

Home Finance – In the news

FTBs go mad for BoMaD 

Half of all first-time buyer (FTB) transactions in 2021 involved support from the Bank of Mum & Dad (BoMaD)1, with £9.8bn of BoMaD loans helping 169,000 FTBs onto the housing ladder. Analysts suggest the trend towards higher parental contributions could be here to stay given that Help to Buy is set to be withdrawn completely from March 2023 onwards. 

To haggle or not to haggle? 

A new survey2 has shown that six in ten UK homebuyers don’t know when to negotiate during the house buying process, even though the same percentage say they feel confident doing so. In today’s seller’s market, negotiating can be a risk: 70% admit their biggest concern is losing the property or being outbid by another buyer.  

Unlucky for some 

Almost half of homeowners have never remortgaged their home3, despite a third knowing that remortgaging would probably save them money. Not considering other mortgage options, such as swapping a variable rate for a fixed term deal, can be costly; since the average Briton has held their mortgage for over 13 years, many will be missing out on better rates. 

1Savills, 2021 

2Douglas & Gordon, 2021 

3Barclays, 2021 

As a mortgage is secured against your home or property, it could be repossessed if you do not keep up mortgage repayments. Equity release may require a lifetime mortgage or a home reversion plan. To understand the features and risks, ask for a personalised illustration. 

Residential Property Review – January 2022

Strong end to record-breaking year – but uncertainty ahead

As Big Ben’s bongs rang out, a record-breaking year for the residential housing market gave way to an uncertain New Year.

Completed transactions to November totalled 1.36 million, which means the number of homes sold in 2021 will reach levels not seen since before the global financial crisis. Persistently high demand and constrained supply have led buyers to snap up available properties; the average number of viewings held before an offer was accepted was just 13 in November 2021, according to Knight Frank, the lowest level since December 2020.

Savills expects this heightened activity to drop off slightly in 2022. The first few months are likely to be busy given that sales agreed remained at elevated levels in November, according to TwentyCi. However, Bank of England data shows that mortgage approvals have returned to pre-pandemic levels, while the Institution for Chartered Surveyors data shows that supply has been falling since April 2021; a combination of factors which experts suggest could lead to leaner months ahead.

Government reacts to cladding crisis

The government has announced its long-awaited cladding plans in the form of a four-point plan and a three-word slogan, ‘Developers Must Pay’.

The plan includes:

  1. Starting the next phase of the Building Safety Fund to take dangerous cladding off high-rise buildings.
  2. Pursuing companies at fault to make them fix the buildings they built.
  3. Indemnifying building assessors from being sued and withdrawing old government advice on declaring buildings unsafe.
  4. Promising leaseholders living in their own flats that they will face no bills for fixing unsafe cladding.

The government has warned developers that if industry fails to take responsibility, it will ‘impose a solution in law.’

Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Michael Gove, said, “More than 4 years after the Grenfell Tower tragedy, the system is broken. Leaseholders are trapped, unable to sell their homes and facing vast bills. But the developers and cladding companies who caused the problem are dodging accountability… From today, we are bringing this scandal to an end.”

FTBs soar to 20-year high

The number of first-time buyers (FTBs) skyrocketed in 2021, with an estimated 408,379 people purchasing their first home during the year, according to Yorkshire Building Society (YBS).

This is a 35% year-on-year rise and the first time since before the global financial crisis that the number of FTBs has surpassed 400,000. Falling unemployment, low interest rates and low deposit mortgage deals have all helped to boost demand.

FTBs in high value areas also benefited from the government’s Stamp Duty holiday, receiving additional relief on properties up to £500,000. Another pandemic bonus for FTBs was the larger deposits that many were able to save due to reduced expenditures during lockdowns.

Nitesh Patel, Strategic Economist at YBS, called the FTB market in 2021 “extraordinary” and added, “Low borrowing costs is an important factor and the increased availability of more low deposit mortgages has also been an enabler mostly for first-time buyers.”

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

Commercial Property Market Review – January 2022

Upbeat tone in new year forecasts

2022 could be a year of recovery for the commercial property market, two leading forecasts have suggested, with Colliers’ ‘Forecasts for 2022’ predicting investment volumes will reach £65bn and  CBRE’s ‘UK Real Estate Outlook’ also foreseeing strong growth despite lingering risks.

According to CBRE, the office market is predicted to return to historical levels in 2022; Colliers expect an office occupancy of 75% to be the norm. On the industrial side, Colliers anticipates take-up topping 40m sq. ft for a third successive year. Demand for retail space is expected to be strong too, notably in prime commuter high streets.

Both reports expect the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) agenda to dominate in 2022, with Colliers anticipating the ‘corporate stampede to net zero’ proceeding to ‘change all markets fundamentally.’ Likewise, the CBRE believes tightening regulation will be the main strategic driver of change.

Jen Siebrits, Head of UK Research at CBRE commented, “Whilst the challenges of the last year are not quite yet behind us… the property industry can still go into 2022 with a renewed sense of optimism. Buoyed by a growing economy, real estate has real impetus for growth in 2022.”

Less office space as flexible working dominates

New data from the Valuation Office Agency shows that the amount of office space in England declined by 2% in the year to 31 March 2021, with experts predicting further falls since.

Over the last two years, demand for office space has diminished, as many employees worked from home and others had large portions of their wages paid through the Job Retention Scheme. Average occupancy levels hovered around 10% in England in the week before Christmas.

The fall in office space was especially pronounced in smaller cities, with Central London more resilient. This is largely thanks to the tech and media sector, which accounted for 23% of Central London take-up in 2021, as well as 20% of active demand, according to Savills Research.

Experts doubt office space will rebound sharply after the pandemic, pointing to a survey from workplace expert, Acas, that reveals over half of employers expect more staff to work remotely for at least part of the week.

ESG key for hotels

After COP26 in Glasgow, ESG issues have been pushed firmly into the spotlight. Hotels, one of the least energy-efficient property sectors, may be a top target for change.

The built environment contributes 40% of UK carbon emissions; hotels are especially polluting, emitting more CO2 per sq. ft than the retail and office sectors. To combat this, the sector has focused on making new development projects align with environmental goals.

Focusing on the existing hotel stock, however, might be more impactful, according to Savills. They note that only 4% of UK hotels have been built within the last five years, while 46% of existing branded hotels in England and Wales do not have an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC).

Google invests in office return

Google is purchasing its office building at Central St Giles, near London’s Tottenham Court Road, at a cost of $1bn, in a show of confidence that its employees will be coming back to the workplace, despite uncertainty over the willingness of workers to return to offices.

The purchase will be in addition to a further $1bn spend for a huge new headquarters in nearby King’s Cross, which, together with other UK offices, will give Google capacity for 10,000 workers. Google currently employs around 6,400 people in the UK but has added around 700 positions in the last year.

Google’s Chief Financial Officer, Ruth Porat said, “Our focus remains on creating flexible workspaces that foster innovation, creativity and inclusivity. We have been privileged to operate in the UK for nearly 20 years, and our purchase of the Central Saint Giles development reflects our continued commitment to the country’s growth and success.”

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

News in Review



“It’s amazing to see the size of the economy back to pre-pandemic levels”

A raft of economic news landed in the last week or so, one of the most prominent being the latest UK gross domestic product (GDP) statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which highlighted that the UK economy surpassed pre-COVID levels for the first time in November – a significant milestone.

Recording stronger-than-expected growth between October and November, UK GDP expanded by 0.9%, ahead of economists’ expectations of 0.4% growth, buoyed by services, production and construction output, which all increased over the month. Rishi Sunak commented on the data, “It’s amazing to see the size of the economy back to pre-pandemic levels in November – a testament to the grit and determination of the British people.” Expectations signal lower subsequent growth following the spread of the Omicron variant and introduction of Plan B measures in England in December. Provided the December estimate does not fall by over 0.2%, and there are no data revisions made, Q4 2021 GDP will either reach or surpass its pre-COVID level.

ONS labour statistics released this week showed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% between September and November, close to pre-pandemic levels, while UK job vacancies reached a record high of 1.24 million between October and December. As inflation continues to bite, average pay rises are not keeping pace with the rise in the cost of living, the data revels.

‘The global economy is set to decelerate’

From a global growth perspective, World Bank expectations released last week warn of slowing growth into 2023 as financial support is wound down and pent-up consumer demand disperses. Following anticipated GDP of 4.1% in 2022, the Bank expects it to slow to 3.2% the following year. The outlook highlights that the main threats to growth this year will be virus variants, including Omicron, supply bottlenecks and declining fiscal support. One of the key points emphasises the need for strengthening global cooperation to attain equitable vaccine distribution, address climate change and improve debt sustainability. The report goes on to summarise, ‘The outlook is clouded by various downside risks, including new virus variants, unanchored inflation expectations, and financial stress. If some countries eventually require debt restructuring, the recovery will be more difficult to achieve than in the past… Social tensions may heighten as a result of the increase in inequality caused by the pandemic. These challenges underscore the need to foster widespread vaccination, enhance debt sustainability, tackle climate change and inequality, and diversify economic activity.’

UK and India trade talks commence

Trade talks kicked off last week between India and Britain, with UK Trade Minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan and her Indian counterpart Piyush Goyal meeting in New Delhi. It is intended that a free trade agreement will be signed by the end of the year, but a limited agreement could be finalised in the next few months. With India set to become the third largest global economy by 2050, Trevelyan has called the prospect of a free trade deal with India “an opportunity that we must seize to steer our partnership along the track of mutual prosperity for the decades to come.” Although the UK has made a post-Brexit deal with India, a free trade deal could almost double British exports to India and boost total trade between the countries by £28bn per year by 2035, it is estimated.

Markets

The strong November GDP growth supported the FTSE last week, with sterling also climbing on the news. As the week progressed, some indices including those in the US, edged lower following remarks from Federal Reserve officials who signalled expectations that US interest rates could rise around March time, leaving markets considering tighter monetary conditions.

Building on the previous week’s gains, the FTSE 100 reached a two-year high on Monday, primarily driven by banking, energy and basic resource stocks. GlaxoSmithKline also led UK stocks higher following the rejection of a third offer for its consumer healthcare division from Unilever.

On Tuesday, oil prices climbed to their highest since 2014 amid supply fears caused by global political tensions involving major producers such as Russia and the United Arab Emirates. Brent Crude closed the day trading at around $87 a barrel.

Here to help

Financial advice is key, so please do not hesitate to get in contact with any questions or concerns you may have.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

In the news – Money

Scam victims suffer a £9.3bn wellbeing impact

Unfortunately, scams continue to be rife. As well as having devasting financial impacts, a study1 has found that scams affect personal wellbeing. By using a model that allows researchers to value changes in wellbeing in monetary terms, the impact of scams on victim wellbeing has been calculated at over £9bn a year – a personal cost of £2,509 for each victim, although the estimated impact for someone hit by online fraud is higher at £3,684. The research suggested scam victims faced a decline in life satisfaction, lower levels of happiness, considerably higher levels of anxiety and in some cases, ill-health.

Is a savings slump looming?

The cost of living is rising, with many savers saying they are rapidly eating into the additional savings they built up during lockdown. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of UK adults say they are worried about rising living costs, with 35% saying they feel more anxious about the future than before the pandemic2. This percentage increases to 42% for 45 to 54-year-olds.

A significant proportion of adults are eating into their lockdown savings fast. In fact, one-fifth say they have already spent their lockdown savings, while a further quarter predict their savings will be gone before the year is out.

As normal life returns, the balancing act between spending and saving, particularly for those approaching retirement, is becoming ever more delicate. Although you’re unlikely to save the same amounts now as you were in lockdown, don’t despair as small amounts of savings each month can soon add up.

1Which?, 2021

2Aviva, 2021

The value of investments and income from them may go down. You may not get back the original amount invested. A pension is a long-term investment. The fund value may fluctuate and can go down. Your eventual income may depend on the size of the fund at retirement, future interest rates and tax legislation.