Bank warns of
deteriorating outlook
The Bank of England
(BoE) has warned that the UK faces a “sharp
economic slowdown” in the coming months as it continues to raise
interest rates in a bid to dampen rapidly rising prices.
Following
its early-May meeting, the BoE’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)
voted by a 6-3 majority to increase the Bank Rate from 0.75% to 1.0%, with the
three dissenting voices each calling for a bigger hike to 1.25%. This was the
fourth successive meeting that the MPC had raised rates, taking them to their
highest level since 2009.
Central
banks around the world are currently scrambling to cope with surging inflation
which began after the post-pandemic reopening of the global economy and has
continued to spiral following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Policymakers,
however, are also trying to avoid sending their economies into a slump, which
is creating a policy dilemma.
Speaking
after the MPC announcement, BoE governor Andrew Bailey admitted, “We are in a very difficult position.” He
added, “We’re walking a very narrow path
between inflation on the one side, which is much higher than we want it to be,
and on the other side very big external shocks which are causing a big loss of
real income for people and businesses in this country.” Mr Bailey went on
to warn of a “material deterioration in
the outlook” for growth.
While
falling short of predicting a technical recession – defined as the economy
shrinking in two consecutive quarters – the BoE is now forecasting a decline in
growth across the final three months of this year, with the economy then
contracting by 0.25% in 2023. Minutes from the May MPC meeting though still
point to further rate rises ‘in the
coming months,’ with BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill recently warning “tightening still has further to run.”
Cost
of Living Support package
After
facing mounting pressure, Chancellor Rishi Sunak has unveiled a further package
of measures designed to ease the impact of soaring prices on household
finances.
The
announcement, made in the Commons on 26 May, was the Chancellor’s second
emergency policy intervention of the year and came days after energy regulator
Ofgem said its gas and electricity price cap looks set to rise by 40% in
October. The move would see the average household energy bill rise by a further
£800 a year to £2,800, prompting Ofgem to warn that the number of people living
in fuel poverty could double to 12 million.
Mr
Sunak said the new package offered “significant
support for the British people”
with every household set to receive an energy bill discount of £400 in October,
with extra financial help targeted at poorer households, pensioners and the
disabled. In total, the Chancellor said the combined measures were worth £15bn,
taking the overall amount of government support pledged this year to around
£37bn.
The
Chancellor also announced that the cost of the support package will be partly
offset by a “temporary and targeted
energy profits levy” on oil and gas firms which will see the tax rate on
North Sea profits rise from 40% to 65%. This temporary increase is expected to
raise £5bn for the exchequer this year but will be phased out when oil and gas
prices return to normal levels.
Responding to the announcement, Institute for
Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson said, “Rishi Sunak has announced a
genuinely big package of support. On average the poorest households will now be
approximately compensated for the rising cost of living this year.” However,
Mr Johnson also suggested that, if energy prices remain high or rise further, “it may turn out hard to ensure these
changes are genuinely temporary.”
Markets (Data
compiled by TOMD)
At the end of May, EU leaders
moved toward an agreement in principle to ban 90% of Russian oil imports by the
end of the year, pushing the price of Brent Crude higher. This benefited the
blue-chip FTSE 100 as energy giants ventured into positive territory on the
news.
In addition, one of the indices largest stocks, consumer goods
giant Unilever, jumped following news that activist investor Nelson Peltz was
appointed to the board, heightening expectations of an overhaul at the company.In the UK, the FTSE 100 closed May
on 7,607.66, a gain of 0.84%, while the FTSE 250 and AIM recorded monthly losses
of 1.40% and 4.55% respectively. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 ended May on 27,279.80, up
1.61%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 closed the month down 0.36% on 3,789.21.
A favourable batch of
quarterly earnings and signs that recent economic data prices were peaking
helped buoy investor sentiment in the US during the month. Following the
Memorial Day holiday, President Biden and Fed Chair Jerome Powell met to
discuss containment measures to combat rising consumer prices, supply chain disruptions
and soaring energy costs, which are weighing heavily on the economy and
markets. The Dow closed May up just 0.04%,
while the NASDAQ finished down 2.05%.
On the foreign exchanges, sterling closed the month at $1.26
against the US dollar. The euro closed at €1.17 against sterling and at $1.07
against the US dollar.
Brent Crude closed the month trading at around $118 a barrel, a gain of 9.31%. Gold is currently trading at around $1,854 a troy ounce, a loss of 3.19% on the month.
Inflation hits
40-year high
Official UK inflation
statistics show consumer prices are now rising at the fastest rate in four
decades driven by the sharp rise in energy bills.
Data
released last month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that
the Consumer Prices Index 12-month rate – which compares prices in the current
month with the same period a year earlier – rose to 9.0% in April. Although the
figure was broadly in line with analysts’ expectations, it does represent a
considerable jump from the previous month’s rate of 7.0%.
ONS
said that around three quarters of the rise was due to higher electricity and
gas bills following Ofgem’s price cap increase which was introduced at the
beginning of the month. In addition, higher fuel and food prices driven up by
the Ukraine war were also notable upward contributors to April’s figure.
Price
pressures look set to continue building over the remainder of this year, with
the BoE’s latest forecast suggesting inflation will average ‘slightly over 10%’ at its peak during
the final quarter of 2022. The bulk of this anticipated further increase will
be due to higher household energy bills from October as a result of the energy
regulator’s next price cap review.
Job
vacancies outpacing unemployment
Although the latest
batch of employment statistics shows vacancies currently exceed the number of
unemployed people in the UK, there are signs that the jobs market may be
cooling a little.
Figures
released last month by ONS showed the unemployment rate fell to 3.7% between
January and March, its lowest level in almost 50 years. There was also another
rise in vacancies which hit a fresh high of 1.3 million; as a result, the
number of people out of work is now less than available job openings for the
first time since records began.
The
data also revealed that the number of people changing jobs hit a record high
which ONS said was ‘driven by
resignations rather than dismissals.’ Overall, however, ONS did say the
latest release painted ‘a mixed picture’
with total employment, although up on the quarter, still below its pre-pandemic
level.
Survey
evidence also suggests the labour market may be starting to cool. The latest
permanent staff placements index from KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment
Confederation, for instance, fell to 59.8 in April. While any reading above 50
still implies growth, this was the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the
lowest figure since March 2021.
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