“These are
challenging times”
In a week where droughts were
officially declared across England, the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS)
latest assessment of the UK economy revealed tough economic conditions. In the second
quarter, the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1%, largely the result
of a 0.6% monthly dip in June. According to ONS, June’s poor reading was partly
attributable to falling retail sales and the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee Bank
Holiday, which resulted in two fewer working days.
Despite the headline negativity,
however, there were positive contributions from consumer-facing services, including
tourism and the arts. Responding to the data, Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi
ventured that “the contraction is partly because of some of the COVID
activities reducing but also real resilience in the private sector which
actually in many ways bodes well.” “Nevertheless”, he admitted, “these
are challenging times.”
On Tuesday, the release of ONS
employment data indicated a small quarterly drop in the Q2 employment rate, the
first time this figure has fallen since 2020. Correspondingly, there was a
small increase in unemployment, with the official rate now estimated at 3.8%.
Despite the quarterly rise,
unemployment remains below pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, the number of
payrolled employees increased across all regions, with the largest rises seen in
London and Northern Ireland. Separately, a productivity flash estimate from ONS
showed output per hour worked remained unchanged in the second quarter.
Meanwhile, the Recruitment & Employment
Confederation (REC)’s latest Labour Market Tracker revealed that the number of
active job adverts across the UK hit a new high for 2022 in the final week of
July. New postings have been steady throughout the past two months and reached
a record 1.85 million in the week of 25-31 July. Kate Shoesmith, the Confederation’s
Deputy CEO, commented, “This new data shows the continued strength of the
jobs market, despite any wider economic uncertainty.”
While average pay rose by 4.7% between April and
June, according to ONS data released on Tuesday, the cost of living is
outpacing wage growth, meaning that the real value of pay fell by 3%. Private sector wages grew by 5.9% while those working in the
public sector saw pay growth of 1.8% which according to Darren Morgan, Director
of Economic Statistics at the ONS is the “largest difference we have
seen for 20 years.”
Positive news came from the US last
Wednesday, with the announcement that the annual inflation rate had eased to
8.5% in July. Although still high, the rate is comfortably below the 9.1%
recorded a month earlier. The easing was largely the result of falling petrol
prices, which recorded a monthly drop of 7.7%.
Manufacturing output in the US rebounded by 0.7%
last month after declining by 0.4% in June, the Federal Reserve said on
Tuesday. A Reuters poll of economists had forecast factory production would
rise by 0.2%.
The Environment Agency
last week declared drought conditions in eight regions across the south and
east of England, with experts now warning the drought could carry on into next
year. The Environment Agency confirmed that Yorkshire was added to the
drought list. Last month, England experienced its driest July since
1935, causing worries for the natural environment and farming. Indeed, a survey
released this week by the National Farmers’ Union found that dry weather, as
well as worker shortages, has already resulted in £22m of fruit and vegetables
going to waste in 2022.
London’s FTSE 100 hit its highest
level in more than two months on Tuesday, with a good performance in the mining
sector and a mixed response to UK employment data. The top share index ended the session up 0.36% at 7,536.06.
Brent crude oil prices remained under pressure
following Monday’s weak economic numbers from China, which is one of the
biggest buyers of natural resources. The price dropped to around $92 a barrel
on Tuesday.
Financial advice is
key, so please do not hesitate to get in contact with any questions or concerns
you may have.
The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get
back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future
performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.
All details are correct at time of
writing (17 August 2022)