30% of Brits moved home in the past three years, motivated by lifestyle changes and space
One in six homeowners plan to relocate this year, with garages and gardens top priorities
Renters face affordability challenges, with many needing family support to buy their first home.
After a busy period in the housing market, there seems to be plenty of appetite left among homeowners and renters for seeking pastures new, research1 suggests.
Keep on moving
Some 30% of Brits have moved home in the past three years. The main motivations for doing so have included lifestyle improvements (17%), a desire to be closer to family and friends (17%) and finding a bigger home (15%).
There is no sign that the moving frenzy is over: one in six existing homeowners intend to relocate this year. In 2025, top priorities for prospective buyers are garages or driveways (40%), which came out narrowly ahead of gardens (39%) and functional spaces like pantries or utility rooms (32%).
A foot on the ladder
Among renters, one in five think that home ownership is within their reach during the next five years. Yet, affordability concerns remain at the forefront for many: property prices (40%) and the amount needed for a deposit (37%) are respondents’ two biggest barriers to home ownership. Besides, six in 10 renters believe it would be impossible to buy a home without support from a family member.
Staying put
For homeowners who are staying put, many are focused on sprucing up instead: some 43% are considering renovating or redecorating. Meanwhile, a quarter plan to update their property to boost energy efficiency.
1Barclays, 2025
As a mortgage is secured against your home or property, it could be repossessed if you do not keep up mortgage repayments.
The UK secured a trade deal with US, cutting car tariffs and protecting key industries and jobs
A UK-India trade deal slashes tariffs and is expected to add £25bn in annual trade by 2040
The Bank of England cut Bank Rate to 4.25% amid easing inflation and global trade uncertainty
“This historic deal delivers for British business and British workers”
The UK secured what both leaders called a “historic” trade deal with the US, becoming the first country to reach an agreement with Washington since Donald Trump imposed sweeping new tariffs in April.
Under the agreement, duties on UK car exports to the US will fall to 10% for up to 100,000 vehicles a year, roughly matching last year’s export total. The deal offers a lifeline to key British industries, especially carmakers, which faced the threat of punishing 27.5% tariffs.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer, speaking from a Jaguar Land Rover factory, called the deal a “fantastic platform” that would protect thousands of British jobs. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the breakthrough came just in time to prevent major job losses.
Starmer added, “This historic deal delivers for British business and British workers protecting thousands of British jobs in key sectors… My government has put Britain at the front of the queue because we want to work constructively with allies for mutual benefit rather than turning our back on the world.”
The US will reinstate previous quotas on UK steel and aluminium, easing earlier tariff hikes, while both countries agreed to open up access to beef markets. The US will now be able to export up to 13,000 tonnes of beef to the UK, up from just 1,000 tonnes previously, while UK producers gain similar access in return.
Trump hailed the agreement as “a great deal” which would be expanded further. US officials claim it could unlock $5bn in export opportunities, including hundreds of millions in ethanol and agricultural products.
While the announcement lacked the formal signatures and detailed terms of a full trade agreement, both governments presented it as a significant step. However, analysts were cautious, suggesting the changes largely restored previous trading conditions rather than setting new ground.
UK and India strike landmark trade deal
The UK and India have signed a long-awaited trade agreement that promises to open up new opportunities for exporters and lower prices for consumers. The UK government estimates it could boost trade between the two countries by more than £25bn a year by 2040.
The deal, which took three years to negotiate, will cut tariffs on a wide range of goods, from British whisky and cars to Indian textiles and jewellery.
Keir Starmer said the agreement would help grow the economy and support jobs, while India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi called it a mutually beneficial milestone. India, already the world’s fifth largest economy, is on track to become the third largest within a few years, making it a key trade partner.
British exporters of gin, whisky, aerospace and medical devices stand to benefit from lower Indian tariffs, with duties on whisky halving to 75% and falling further over time. Luxury carmakers will also see tariffs slashed from 100% to 10%, although exports will be subject to quotas. Meanwhile, Indian goods such as clothing, seafood and gems will become cheaper in the UK.
Observers say the deal could be transformational, given India’s size and the historically high barriers to accessing its market. Jonathan Reynolds described the benefits as “massive” for both firms and consumers.
Bank of England cuts Bank Rate
The Bank of England (BoE) cut Bank Rate from 4.5% to 4.25% at its May meeting last week. The decision, made ahead of confirmation of the new UK-US trade deal, reflected concerns that higher tariffs would slow UK growth and bring inflation down. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee was split, with two members pushing for a deeper cut to 4% and two favouring no change at all. Five members supported the quarter-point reduction.
Although the BoE stopped short of predicting a recession, it warned the global trade environment was adding to economic uncertainty. Governor Andrew Bailey said the rate cut was possible because inflation had continued to ease, but he said future rate decisions would be gradual and data-driven. Markets expect further rate cuts in the coming months, but uncertainty remains over how aggressive the BoE will be.
The BoE predicts UK gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 1% this year, up from 0.75%, largely due to a stronger-than-expected first quarter. However, underlying growth remains subdued at just 0.1% per quarter.
Here to help
Financial advice is key, so please do not hesitate to get in contact with any questions or concerns you may have.
The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.
All details are correct at time of writing (14 May 2025)
13 million UK adults are sitting on £430bn in cash, potentially missing out on higher long-term investment returns
Many savers find investing too complex—74% need guidance on choosing the right investments
Holding cash is useful for short-term needs, but long-term investing can offer greater wealth-building potential
A recent report1 estimates 13 million UK adults are sitting on £430bn of cash savings. The report, titled ‘Empowering retail savers to engage with investing’ suggests savers are “missing out” on earning better returns over the long term.
The research highlights three reasons why savers are reluctant to invest:
Too many options:
One in five (21%) people with savings don’t think they have the knowledge to choose what to invest in, while 24% think investing is too complicated
Not confident with comparing investments:
Nearly three quarters (74%) need help to determine which type of investment is suitable for them, while two-thirds (63%) want assistance in comparing investment products
Too worried about risk:
Almost half (43%) of savers think investing is too risky and could mean they “lose all their money.”
What is the long-term cost of saving instead of investing?
Financial software firm Oxford Risk believes choosing saving over investing carries a high cost, with savers missing out on up to 5% a year in lost returns. The firm is also concerned that a growing number of UK adults are choosing to ‘sit on the sidelines’ by keeping their money in cash.
What can be done to close the investing gap?
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has made addressing cash holdings a strategic priority and Oxford Risk has urged, ‘More needs to be done beyond just raising awareness of the issue to drive the vital change in investor behaviour.’
Holding a proportion of your wealth in cash is worthwhile for liquidity, emergencies and short-term needs. However, history has shown that over the long term, investing yields higher returns than holding cash, although not guaranteed. The key is balance: keep enough cash for security but invest the rest to build wealth over time. Diversification to spread the risk is important.
1Barclays, 2024
The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. Financial protection policies typically have no cash in value at any time and cover will cease at the end of the term. If premiums stop, then cover will lapse.
IHT receipts topped £6.3bn in the eight months to December, a £600m increase on the same period the previous year
OBR predicts IHT receipts will continue their ascent, forecasting total receipts of £9.7bn a year by 2028/29
Factors including a rise in asset values and frozen thresholds are contributing to rising receipts
HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data shows IHT receipts topped £6.3bn in the eight months to December 2024, a £600m increase on the same period the previous year.
This significant 11% year-on-year increase places the 2024/25 fiscal year firmly on course to be the fourth consecutive year of record IHT receipts for the Treasury.
Meanwhile, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has predicted that IHT receipts will continue their ascent, forecasting total receipts of £9.7bn a year by 2028/29.
HMRC said that higher receipts can be attributed to a combination of factors, including a rise in asset values, an increase in wealth transfers following IHT-liable deaths and frozen IHT tax thresholds.
The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) does not regulate Will writing, tax and trust advice and certain forms of estate planning.
UK house prices fell by 0.6% in April following a rush in March to beat Stamp Duty changes. Despite the drop, prices remain 3.4% higher than a year ago
US GDP shrank by 0.3% in Q1 2025—its first contraction in three years—due to reduced government spending and a surge in imports ahead of tariffs
Ukraine and the US have signed a new deal to share energy and mineral profits and establish a reconstruction investment fund, aiming to boost Ukraine’s recovery
“Activity is likely to pick up steadily as summer progresses”
UK house prices fell by 0.6% in April, according to new data from Nationwide, marking the first monthly decline since August 2024. This dip follows a surge in transactions during March, as buyers rushed to complete purchases ahead of Stamp Duty changes introduced on 1 April. While the slowdown was anticipated, annual house price growth remains positive, with homes still 3.4% more expensive than a year ago and the average property price now standing at £270,752.
Nationwide’s index fell from 542.4 in March to 539.3 in April, reinforcing the short-term impact of fiscal policy on buyer behaviour. Looking ahead, market activity is expected to gradually improve.
Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Robert Gardner, explained that the market softness is typical following changes to Stamp Duty, with many buyers bringing forward purchases to avoid higher charges. Looking ahead to the summer months he said, “Activity is likely to pick up steadily as summer progresses, despite wider economic uncertainties in the global economy, since underlying conditions for potential home buyers in the UK remain supportive.”
The latest Money and Credit statistics from the Bank of England (BoE) released last week show net residential mortgage borrowing increased significantly by £9.7bn to £13.0bn in March. Gross lending also saw a sharp uptick to £39.9bn in the month, from £24.9bn in February, and was the highest in almost four years (since June 2021).
On 8 May the main focus will be on the BoE announcement, where the Monetary Policy Committee is expected to vote to lower interest rates by a quarter point. Economists polled by Reuters expect quarter-point rate cuts every three months throughout the year – taking interest rates to 3.75% by the end of 2025.
US economy dips in Q1
The US economy shrank at an annual rate of 0.3% in Q1, marking the first quarterly contraction in three years. The contraction followed growth of 2.4% in the previous quarter (Q4 2024) and was largely attributed to falling government spending and a sharp rise in imports, as businesses rushed to bring goods into the country ahead of tariffs. While imports count negatively toward GDP, economists noted that such swings are not necessarily indicative of a broader economic downturn and may be reversed in subsequent quarters.
President Trump responded to the data by deflecting blame, saying, “This is Biden” and reiterating his belief that tariffs would ultimately lead to stronger domestic investment. The White House called the GDP figure a ‘backward-looking indicator,’ insisting the fundamentals remain strong. “The underlying numbers tell the real story of the strong momentum President Trump is delivering,” said Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.
Ukraine / US deal struck
Last week, after months of negotiations, Ukraine signed a deal with the US to share future profits from its energy and mineral reserves, aiming to support the region’s economic recovery and incentivise continued US investment in defence and reconstruction. The agreement also established a new US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, recognising America’s aid since Russia’s invasion. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the deal reflects a joint commitment to peace, growth and rebuilding.
Support pledged for UK businesses
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has pledged stronger support for UK businesses by addressing unfair trade practices, such as the import of cheap goods which undercut domestic producers. Measures include empowering the Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) and reviewing customs rules on low value imports. Retailers argue this loophole allows foreign competitors to unfairly underprice UK businesses.
William Bain of the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) welcomed the move, saying, “There are still many twists and turns to go in the trade war between the US and China. It remains to be seen whether cheap Chinese goods will flood the UK as a result, but the risk is present. It is sensible for the TRA to have all the necessary tools and resources to take action to prevent the UK being swamped with unfairly cheap products.”
He continued, “If domestic production suffers from a surge in imports or dumping of goods it is right that business has clearer access to make their case to the TRA. It must have the resources it needs to enforce a level playing field.”
Here to help
Financial advice is key, so please do not hesitate to get in contact with any questions or concerns you may have.
The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.
All details are correct at time of writing (7 May 2025)
US Vice President JD Vance spelled it out in Munich – “there is a new sheriff in town” – and that sheriff’s policies are already having far-reaching consequences. While dealing with geopolitical uncertainties is clearly nothing new for long-term investors, Trump’s re-election has once again vividly highlighted the need for a sound investment approach based on careful planning and positioning of assets.
Global growth has stabilised
In its latest assessment of world economic prospects, the World Bank highlighted several positive developments in the global outlook. Specifically, it noted that global growth stabilised at 2.7% in 2024, after a series of negative shocks, and that this rate of expansion is expected to hold steady across 2025 and 2026. It also emphasised that, with appropriate policy interventions, current global challenges could be transformed into opportunities, fostering a more resilient world economy.
Policy uncertainties
The World Bank did, however, warn that heightened uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts represent key risks to global trade and economic growth prospects. Protectionism is back and could lead to shifts in global economic structures, including changes in trade alliances and manufacturing bases, while the increased costs of imported goods due to tariffs could have inflationary consequences.
A permanent fixture
Another aspect of Trump’s new tariff push is that it seems to represent a long-term policy shift with multiple objectives. It has a national security aspect, for instance, aiming to address immigration and drug-smuggling concerns; it has an economic leverage element designed to deal with trade imbalances, and is also viewed as a potential revenue generator to fund tax cuts. In essence, the trend to protectionism appears set to become the new norm, necessitating a need for strategic investment approaches in a shifting landscape.
Take control
Experienced investors know the importance of staying calm during periods of market uncertainty and the need to continue basing investment decisions on sound financial planning principles. And, right now, the adoption of appropriate diversification and risk management strategies undoubtedly offer investors the safest route through any volatility in an increasingly protectionist world.
The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.
Some 728,000 people who have recently turned 18 have not claimed their Child Trust Fund, figures1 show, with the total value of unclaimed money amounting to £1.4bn. Many eligible young people do not know that their account exists, campaigners say. MPs are urging more action from HMRC to inform potential recipients.
Youth still trust ‘finfluencers’
Social media remains the most popular place for those under 30 to find information about money, research2 shows, with six in 10 young people following one or more financial influencer (‘finfluencer’) online. Even more strikingly: almost eight in 10 young people say they trust everything finfluencers say. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has launched targeted action against finfluencers who may be touting financial services products illegally, as increasing numbers of young people are falling victim to scams. Steve Smart, Joint Executive Director of Enforcement and Market Oversight at the FCA, commented, “Finfluencers are trusted by the people who follow them, often young and potentially vulnerable people attracted to the lifestyle they flaunt. Finfluencers need to check the products they promote to ensure they are not breaking the law and putting their followers’ livelihoods and life savings at risk.”
Pension priority for young workers
Workers aged 18 to 34 are contributing almost 10% of their wage to a pension each month, a report3 suggests. On the other hand, many older workers are now regretting that they will have to live a more frugal lifestyle than hoped, the report reveals. Don’t have regrets, prioritise your pension now.
A pension is a long-term investment not normally accessible until 55 (57 from April 2028). The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up.
The UK economy grew 0.5% in February, driven by strong service and manufacturing sectors despite looming headwinds
Inflation dipped to 2.6% in March, but April’s household bill hikes are expected to reverse the trend
The labour market weakened as vacancies fell, though wage growth remained robust amid cost pressures and job cuts
UK economy returns to growth
Data released last month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed economic growth was stronger than expected in February, although more recent survey evidence suggests this pick-up may prove short-lived as economic headwinds threaten growth prospects.
According to the latest gross domestic product (GDP) statistics, economic output rose by 0.5% in February, the fastest rate of expansion in 11 months. This figure was higher than all forecasts submitted to a Reuters poll of economists, which had pointed to a monthly rise of just 0.1%.
ONS said this stronger-than-expected performance partly reflected robust service sector growth, with computer programming, telecoms and car dealerships all performing well during February. In addition, ONS noted that manufacturing, electronics and pharmaceutical businesses all enjoyed a strong month.
Separately released trade figures for February also showed goods exports to the US hit their highest monthly level since November 2022. Analysts suggested the jump was a clear sign of firms trying to beat the imposition of President Trump’s tariffs.
Survey data, however, shows that those tariffs are now having a detrimental impact on business activity. Last month’s preliminary headline growth indicator from the closely monitored S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), for instance, fell to a 29-month low of 48.2 in April, down from 51.5 in March. This left the index significantly below the 50.0 threshold, denoting a contraction in private sector output.
S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “The disappointing survey reflects the impact of headwinds from both home and abroad. The biggest concern lies in a slump in exports amid weakened global demand and rising global trade worries, but higher staffing costs have also piled pressure on companies – linked to the National Insurance and minimum wage changes that came into effect at the start of April.”
Inflation rate eases before expected jump
Although last month’s inflation data showed the headline rate at its lowest level for three months, this dip is only expected to prove temporary with an acceleration in price growth likely to resume when April’s data is published later this month.
The latest ONS statistics revealed the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate – which compares prices in the current month with the same period a year earlier – fell to 2.6% in March from 2.8% the previous month. This reading was just below analysts’ expectations, with a Reuters poll pointing to a rate of 2.7%.
ONS noted that March’s decline was largely driven by falling petrol prices and a drop in prices for computer games. The one significant offsetting factor came from the clothing sector, with the price of clothes rising strongly following February’s surprise, unseasonal fall.
Despite this second monthly CPI decline, economists still expect to see a pick-up in inflationary pressures when April’s data is released on 21 May. This predicted jump will largely be driven by a host of household bill increases, which came into effect at the start of last month, as well as price pressures on businesses as they respond to the National Insurance and minimum wage hikes.
Forecasting the future path of inflation, however, has become more complicated with the introduction of Trump’s tariffs. Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Megan Greene recently suggested the tariffs would probably lead to lower rather than higher inflation in the UK, although she did stress big uncertainties still surround the tariff plan, adding “none of us have any idea what they’ll look like when the dust finally settles.”
While such uncertainties undoubtedly create a policy dilemma for the BoE, its interest-rate setting committee is widely expected to sanction another quarter-point rate cut this month, with its decision due to be announced on 8 May.
Markets
As April drew to a close, global markets were digesting fresh data from the States which showed that the economy contracted for the first time in three years during Q1.
The US economy shrank at an annualised rate of 0.3%, as government spending fell and imports surged, with firms racing to get goods into the country ahead of tariffs. The contraction follows robust growth of 2.4% recorded in Q4 2024. The Dow Jones closed the month down 3.17% on 40,669.36, while the tech-orientated NASDAQ closed April up 0.85% on 17,446.34.
On the continent, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed the month 1.74% lower on 5,156.90. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 ended April on 36,045.38, a monthly gain of 1.20%. In the UK, the blue-chip FTSE 100 index closed April on 8,462.77, a loss of 1.40%. The mid-cap focused FTSE 250 closed the month up 1.82% on 19,830.00, while the FTSE AIM closed on 689.93, a gain of 1.16%.
On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.17 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.33 against sterling and at $1.13 against the euro.
Gold closed April trading around $3,317 a troy ounce, a monthly gain of over 5%. The price has pulled back from recent all-time highs as geopolitical tensions eased slightly as a result of Trump’s tariff relief orders. Brent Crude closed the month trading at around $61 a barrel, a monthly loss of over 18.00%. The oil price fell at month end as demand concerns weighed.
Retail sales see strong quarterly rise
Official retail sales statistics published last month revealed that sales volumes grew at their fastest rate in nearly four years across the first three months of 2025.
According to the latest monthly ONS figures, retail sales volumes rose by 0.4% in March, defying economists’ expectations of a 0.4% decline. ONS said sales at garden centres were boosted by March’s sunny weather, while demand for clothing and DIY goods also proved to be strong. This left sales across the first quarter as a whole up by 1.6%, the largest three-month growth rate since July 2021.
Data from GfK’s most recent consumer confidence survey, however, suggests sales may not grow so quickly over the coming months. In April, the closely watched gauge of British consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level since late 2023, with GfK saying rising household bills and turbulent global financial markets were behind the drop in confidence.
The latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey found that retailers are also relatively pessimistic about the future outlook. Although the survey’s monthly sales gauge for April was actually higher than the comparable figure for March, respondents said they expect the retail environment to worsen this month reflecting concerns about weak consumer sentiment and global economic uncertainty.
Jobs market continues to weaken
The latest set of UK labour market statistics showed that demand for workers continued to wane in the run-up to April’s National Insurance and minimum wage changes, although pay growth once again remained strong.
Figures published last month by ONS revealed another decline in the overall number of job vacancies. In total, there were 26,000 fewer vacancies reported between January and March 2025, leaving the estimated number of jobs on offer at 781,000. This leaves vacancies 15,000 lower than in the same period in 2020, marking the first time since March to May 2021 that the total has fallen below its pre-pandemic level.
Survey evidence also points to a further softening in demand for labour. Data from April’s S&P Global/CIPS PMI, for example, found job cutting remains ‘aggressive’ across the UK private sector as firms grapple with the twin pressures of decreased workloads and rising payroll costs; survey respondents widely noted that squeezed margins had resulted in the non-replacement of voluntary leavers.
The ONS data, however, did show that wage growth remains strong. Indeed, average weekly earnings excluding bonuses rose at an annual rate of 5.9% in the three months to February, up from 5.8% in the previous three-month period.
All details are correct at the time of writing (01 May 2025)
It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.
The IMF has downgraded global growth forecasts, warning of heightened risks from US tariffs and policy uncertainty
Manufacturing output figures show stagnation, with firms citing declining demand, rising costs, and global uncertainty
UK consumer confidence has hit its lowest since November 2023 due to cost-of-living pressures and tariff fears
“Uncertainty is bad for business”
As policymakers gathered in Washington for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank spring meetings, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged countries to act “swiftly” to resolve trade tensions jeopardising global growth. “Uncertainty is bad for business,” Georgieva warned, with tariffs causing companies to delay investment and consumers to curb spending.
The IMF highlighted the risk to global trade from President Trump’s tariffs, warning modern supply chains are highly interconnected. In its April 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF downgraded its global growth forecast, citing US tariffs and growing uncertainty. It now sees a 40% chance of a US recession, up from 25% and expects US growth of just 1.8% this year, down from 2.7% in January. It also warned, ‘Ratcheting up a trade war and heightened trade policy uncertainty may further hinder both short-term and long-term growth prospects. Scaling back international cooperation could jeopardise progress toward a more resilient global economy.’
The IMF now forecasts UK growth at 1.1%, ahead of Germany, France and Italy, though the UK is also expected to have the highest inflation among developed economies at 3.1%, due to rising energy and water bills. Despite this, the IMF thinks the Bank of England could cut interest rates three more times this year. Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the government was working “flat out” to secure a trade deal with the US. “We’re all grappling with this issue of tariffs but I think there is an understanding why President Trump wants to address some of the global imbalances there are in the system,” she said.
Challenging environment for manufacturers
UK manufacturing output was broadly flat in the four months to April, according to the latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). Although several sectors reported weaker performance, higher production in motor vehicles and transport helped offset the decline. However, manufacturers expect output to dip slightly by July.
New domestic and export orders fell in Q1 and could decline further in the months ahead. Manufacturers remain concerned about rising costs, falling new orders and heightened uncertainty around global economic conditions. Export expectations are particularly weak, with half of firms citing political or economic uncertainty abroad, the highest since April 2021. Cost pressures have intensified, with average costs rising faster than earlier in the year. Domestic prices are expected to continue rising, though export prices may remain stable.
The sector’s overall sentiment worsened in April and investment plans remain subdued. Firms expect to cut spending on buildings, machinery, innovation and training, blaming weak demand, poor returns and labour shortages. Employment is also under pressure – manufacturing headcount dropped at the fastest pace since October 2020.
CBI Chief Economist Ben Jones commented, “The uncertainty around global economic conditions only increases the importance of getting it right in domestic economic policy. Firms are already feeling the cumulative burden of rises in National Insurance contributions and the National Living Wage – and tariffs represent another headwind for the business sector.”
Consumer confidence slumps
UK consumers have suffered an ‘extraordinarily unsettling’ April, according to GfK’s Consumer Confidence Barometer. The overall index score, which includes five different measures of consumer confidence, slipped to its lowest since November 2023, falling four points to -23, erasing this year’s gains. GfK said UK households were hit by ‘multiple April cost increases’ including higher energy, water and telecoms bills, as well as Stamp Duty and Council Tax. Concerns over US tariffs and the return of higher inflation also filtered through to consumers. Business sentiment has weakened as well, with private sector activity falling at the fastest rate in over two years, according to S&P Global.
Stamp Duty deadline drives ‘blockbuster’ month
Barclays reported mortgage completions increased by 50% in March, as buyers rushed to secure Stamp Duty savings before the temporary cut was phased out. March was the UK property market’s busiest month since September 2021, when activity was driven by pandemic-era low interest rates. The number of completions was up by 70% among first-time buyers, but Barclays said the high level of activity didn’t suggest broader confidence in the UK housing market. Its survey revealed just 16% of renters thought buying a property was achievable in the next five years.
Here to help
Financial advice is key, so please do not hesitate to get in contact with any questions or concerns you may have.
The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.
All details are correct at time of writing (30 April 2025)
Megatrends are powerful, long-term shifts, which are already changing the way we live and work
Today, trends such as AI, defence spending, changing energy supplies and demographics, are evident
While markets fluctuate daily, megatrends are shaping the future, creating exciting opportunities
Investing megatrends are powerful, long-term shifts expected to reshape industries, economies and investment markets on a global scale. These aren’t just passing trends, they’re already changing the way we live and work, influencing how businesses operate and where investors put their money.
Geopolitical conflict
Global tensions have been rising in recent years, with lengthy conflicts in Europe, the Middle East and East Asia destabilising markets. Governments are ramping up defence spending, driving investment in military technology, missile systems and cybersecurity, especially as threats coming from AI emerge. For investors, global uncertainty presents opportunities as nations prioritise security and military innovation.
Artificial intelligence
More than just a trend, AI is driving economic change by automating tasks, reshaping business models and boosting efficiency. Massive investment in data centres, cloud computing and hardware is fuelling its expansion, with companies supporting AI infrastructure poised for strong growth. AI is also transforming industries by analysing vast data, generating insights and accelerating digital change. While concerns over an ‘AI bubble’ have surfaced this year, especially after a new Chinese competitor called DeepSeek made headlines, AI seems unstoppable.
Demand for energy
Global energy consumption is surging, driven by economic growth, transport electrification and again, AI. This rising demand is reshaping the energy sector, creating both challenges and investment opportunities. Nuclear energy is making a comeback, with older plants being refurbished and new projects progressing. Meanwhile, offshore oil and gas exploration is reviving, showing that fossil fuels still play a key role. At the same time, renewable energy is thriving, with investments in solar, wind and hydrogen. Energy systems are increasing in sophistication as companies develop smart grids and energy storage solutions.
Shifting demographics
People are living longer, which means investors can benefit by focusing on sectors set for the rising demand in medical services, treatments and elderly care. Similarly, businesses catering to older consumers, such as those in travel, wellness and lifestyle industries, are poised to capitalise. At the same time, medical innovation is changing how we live and how long we live. Obesity drugs have reduced diabetes risk by 73% and cardiovascular deaths by 20%, while new cancer treatments and AI-driven drugs are pushing boundaries.
While markets fluctuate daily, megatrends are shaping the future, creating exciting opportunities along the way.
The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated
