News in Review

Latest data from the Office for National Statistics show the annual inflation rate remained at 3% since February 2025According to recent forecasts, the UK could be among the hardest hit G7 country, due to global eventsConsumer attitudes about the general economic situation expectations for the year ahead dropped by six points to -37

“A brutal inflation surge looms”

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the annual rate of inflation remained at 3% in the 12 months to February – based on data collected before the Middle East conflict.

Interestingly, motor fuels made the largest downward contribution to inflation, with prices falling by 4.6% annually in the 12 months to February. Fuel prices have obviously surged in recent weeks, due to the conflict.

Suren Thiru, Chief Economist at ICAEW, commented on the UK inflationary outlook, “While inflation should fall next month as the cut to green levies temporarily lowers energy bills, a brutal inflation surge looms with skyrocketing oil and gas costs likely to lift the headline rate above 4% by the summer.”

Executives from the energy, shipping and banking sectors were called to Downing Street on Monday. Business leaders were urged to help manage the economic fallout from the conflict, with Keir Starmer acknowledging the government cannot carry the burden alone. Addressing the group, the Prime Minister said responding to the impact of the conflict would require a “joint effort.”

Competing forces shape the outlook

The recently released global economic overview from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), highlights the uncertainty of the conflict on growth and how two competing forces are shaping the outlook. On one side, stronger investment in technology, lower-than-expected tariffs and momentum carried over from a robust 2025 are helping to support growth. Meanwhile, disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside damage to energy infrastructure, has pushed up energy prices and interrupted the supply of key commodities, adding to inflationary pressures.

Global growth of 2.9% is predicted for this year, ticking up to 3% next year. These projections assume the energy disruption is temporary and eases from the middle of the year. The forecasts highlight that the UK could be among the hardest hit in the G7. The UK is now expected to see growth of just 0.7% in 2026, downgraded from the previous estimate of 1.2%. Meanwhile, OECD estimates UK inflation will reach 4% this year, revised up from the previous forecast of 2.5%. Inflation is projected to ease to 2.6% in 2027, but this assumes that energy prices will start to fall from mid-2026.

Consumer confidence

Consumer confidence weakened in March, with GfK’s index falling by two points to -21. Attitudes about the general economic situation over the last 12 months rose monthly by one point to -43. However, expectations for the year ahead dropped by six points to -37. The Major Purchase Index, which measures views on making big purchases, fell by four points to -18.

Neil Bellamy at GfK commented, “People simply do not feel the economy is robust enough to ride out the knock-on effects from the Middle East conflict. Moreover, the decline in purchasing intentions, coupled with a six-point rise in the Savings Index, indicates people are holding on to their money and avoiding making major purchases while they wait to see what the medium-term impact of the conflict will be.”

Car production falls

Figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) shows that UK vehicle production decreased annually by 17.2% in February, with 68,061 units produced. Vehicle exports were down 14.6%. This decline is largely due to weaker demand for cars from the US (-34.3%) and China (-66.4%).

Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive said, “Another decline for UK vehicle production and exports is extremely worrying, given these figures pre-date the crisis in the Middle East. While the sector has made efforts to build resilience into its logistics and supply chains post Covid, the conflict adds further strain.”

Higher tax receipts for HMRC

HMRC’s tax revenue has increased, largely due to frozen thresholds. Between April 2025 and February 2026, gross tax and National Insurance Contributions (NICs) receipts hit £860.7bn, up £72.6bn on the same period last year. This was driven by a rise in Income Tax, Capital Gains Tax and NICs. Inheritance Tax receipts also contributed, with £7.7bn already collected over the 10-month period.

Here to help

Financial advice is key, so please do not hesitate to get in contact with any questions or concerns you may have.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

All details are correct at time of writing (1 April 2026)

The surprising property premium of some floral addresses

Research shows that floral street names can significantly boost the value of a propertyThe biggest premium was found on ‘Bellflower’ streets, where the median sale price increased 199%Property experts suggest that flower-inspired names evoke charm, calm and a sense of natural beauty

As spring edges into view, new research1 suggests that a floral touch may do more than lift the mood – it could also boost property prices. Homes on streets with flower-inspired names are proving especially desirable, selling for as much as 199% more than comparable properties elsewhere. 

The biggest premium was found on ‘Bellflower’ streets, where the median sale price increased 199%. Other bloom-brightened addresses such as ‘Pinks’ and ‘Helenium’ also commanded sizeable uplifts of 53% and 41% respectively. Not every floral street flourishes, though – names like ‘Phlox,’ ‘Weigela’ and ‘Gloxinia’ were linked to value drops of up to 55%. 

Property experts suggest that floral street names evoke charm, calm and a sense of natural beauty – qualities that appeal strongly to buyers seeking both sanctuary and style. As the days lengthen and gardens begin to stir, the findings offer a reminder that even a touch of springtime in an address can shape perceptions of value. 

A blooming good name, it seems, might just help your home come into full flower this year. 

1Hillarys, 2025 

As a mortgage is secured against your home or property, it could be repossessed if you do not keep up mortgage repayments.  

The gradual retirement trend – making the right choices

Research shows that floral street names can significantly boost the value of a propertyUncertainty around pension rules can affect confidence, leading to rushed or potentially regrettable financial decisions Careful planning and professional guidance help ensure retirement choices align with long-term goals and lifestyle 

New research1 highlights a growing preference among UK workers for a gradual transition into retirement, rather than a ‘hard stop’ where work ends entirely. 

Fewer than a quarter (24%) of workers expect to stop working altogether when they reach retirement age. The majority plan to either change the way they work (43%), continue in their current role (15%), or move into a new position (9%). 

Finding balance – financially and personally 

Gradual retirement can take many forms. Some people choose to reduce their working hours over time, while others shift into consultancy roles, mentoring or part-time work, sometimes in a new field. This approach can offer financial stability, maintain purpose and social connection, and support overall wellbeing as routines and priorities evolve. 

Confidence to make the right choices  

The research also highlights some challenges. Many nearing retirement are concerned that uncertainty around pension rules and tax treatment could undermine their plans. This lack of confidence can lead to rushed financial decisions, such as taking a tax-free cash lump sum or drawing income earlier than necessary, choices that could later be regretted. 

Aegon’s Pensions Director, Steven Cameron, says a “significant cultural shift” in how people approach later-life work and retirement is occurring. He stresses the importance of a stable pension system that gives people the confidence to plan for the long term. 

Plan, don’t rush 

Today’s retirees have more flexibility than ever before, but with choice comes complexity. Taking time to plan carefully, and seeking professional guidance, can help ensure decisions align with your long-term goals and lifestyle. Whatever approach you take to retirement, we’re here to help you make confident, informed choices. 

1Aegon, 2025 

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate Will writing, tax and trust advice and certain forms of estate planning. 

Residential Property Review – March 2026

Muted activity in housing market – according to RICS, new buyer enquiries declined further in February Rental market becomes more balanced – competition for rental properties has slowed to a six-year low, according to Zoopla Local housing markets rebound – research from Yopa indicates that about 70% of local housing markets are in recovery 

Muted activity in housing market

The UK housing market is struggling to gain momentum as geopolitical tensions cause uncertainty about what’s on the horizon.

According to the latest survey from RICS, new buyer enquiries declined further in February, falling to a net balance of -26%, down from -15% the previous month.  Agreed sales slipped slightly too, posting a net balance of -12%.

The recent outbreak of war in Iran has affected the short-term outlook, with near-term sales expectations dropping to -2%, the weakest reading since last November. The current longer-term outlook is a little more positive, with a net balance of 17% of respondents expecting sales activity to rise over the next twelve months.

The full economic impact of the Middle East conflict remains to be seen, but the mortgage landscape was muted before tension escalated. According to the Bank of England, only 60,000 mortgage approvals were recorded in January, down on the six-month average of 64,100. 

Rental market becomes more balanced

Competition for rental properties has slowed to a six-year low, according to Zoopla.

Supply and demand are becoming slightly more balanced across the rental market. In March, tenant demand was 14% lower than the previous year, while the number of available properties rose by 11%. This increase in supply may be due to more renters getting on the property ladder, therefore freeing up their homes. As a result, competition among renters is easing, with the number of enquiries per property falling annually from 6.5 to 4.8. This is the lowest level for six years but is still double the pre-pandemic average.

The relative improvement in rental conditions has helped to slow the pace of annual rental growth to 1.9% in March, down from 2.8% the previous year. There is some regional variation, with northern cities such as Liverpool and Newcastle showing stronger growth of 4.6% and 4.5% respectively.

Local housing markets rebound

Research from Yopa indicates that about 70% of local housing markets are in recovery.

The national picture for house price growth may be muted, but analysis of local authorities suggests that the landscape may be shifting upwards. Of the 359 districts analysed, 241 show monthly house price increases. Some of the strongest rebounds were seen in areas such as South Ayrshire, North Cambridgeshire and Northumberland. Meanwhile, the most expensive areas continue to see homes decrease in value – this is particularly evident in London, where Kensington and Chelsea, Camden, and Hammersmith and Fulham are among those seeing notable price declines.

Verona Frankish at Yopa commented, “After a difficult couple of years shaped by economic uncertainty and rapidly rising mortgage rates, conditions have undoubtedly been challenging… the fact that most Local Authorities are already in recovery demonstrates that the market is not in decline, but in transition.”

All details are correct at the time of writing (24 March 2026)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

Commercial Property Review – March 2026

Office demand strong in London – research shows increased activity in the capital, reflecting shift back to office working Industrial and logistics sector – according to Knight Frank the sector appears to be entering a more stable phase Life sciences – figures from CBRE indicate total take-up was almost three times the level recorded in H2 2024 

Strong demand for Central London offices

Investment into the Central London office sector has surged as more companies implement return-to-office mandates.

According to research from BPS London, the office sector was one of the strongest-performing commercial property asset classes last year. This was driven by increased activity in Central London, where office investment rose by 45.1% annually, increasing from £4.79bn to £6.95bn. This reflects a shift back to office-working after the pandemic, with demand for office spaces rising in London. As a result, office rents have gone up in the capital’s most desirable locations, reaching £185 per sq. ft. in the West End. Interestingly, transaction levels across the office sector have fallen by 6.9%, suggesting that investors are becoming more selective, targeting premium spaces that make office-working more appealing. The focus on high-quality offices may make it difficult for smaller businesses to afford spaces in London in future, as they risk being priced out of the market.

Industrial and logistics sector update

What can we expect from the industrial and logistics sector this year? Knight Frank has shared its predictions.

The sector appeared to be entering a more stable phase at the start of 2026, with Knight Frank forecasting an increase in core capital investment due to improved investor confidence. This was expected to be supported by decreasing debt costs, however the outlook has become more uncertain due to the economic impact of the war in Iran. Overall, any growth is likely to be driven by rental income and a modest rise in property value, rather than yield compression.

In the occupier market, demand was resilient in 2025, with UK take-up increasing by 13% year-on-year, reaching 40.8 million sq. ft. The average transaction size rose by 8% annually, reflecting heightened demand for higher-spec buildings that are automation-ready. Occupier demand is expected to stabilise further this year, with operators continuing to prioritise the efficiency of a building.  

How is life sciences performing?

Figures from CBRE offer an insight into life sciences activity across the UK Golden Triangle.

The Golden Triangle refers to the life sciences cluster encompassing London, Cambridge and Oxford. In H2 2025, total take-up was 633,700 sq. ft., almost three times the level recorded in H2 2024. This brought take-up for the whole year to 889,800 sq. ft., with Oxford accounting for 75% of this.

Oxford was also the only market that recorded any investment activity in the second half of last year, with just over £1bn transacted. This is well above the average level of £0.38bn, driven by the £890m sale of Oxford Science Park. Cambridge and London did see notable investment activity in H1 2025.

More life sciences space is in development – at the end of 2025, 3.6 million sq. ft. of space was under construction across the Golden Triangle, expected to be complete by the end of 2028.

Hotel sector regains momentum

Figures from Colliers show that the hotel sector got off to a relatively strong start to the year.

In January, £550m was invested into UK hotels – this is significantly higher than the five-year monthly average of £300m and more than seven times the total for January 2025 (£70m). This comes after a strong finish to 2025 for hotels, which suggests that the upwards momentum is being maintained. In the second half of last year, revenue per available room rose annually by 4.4% to £236. Meanwhile, hotel occupancy rates increased by 1.9% to 86.5%, reflecting an increase in demand for wellness and leisure.

The challenge for the hotel sector is that its performance is often measured by short-term indicators. To sustain investor interest, hotels may need to place greater emphasis on longer-term measures – for example, multi-year corporate relationships provide reliable income streams, thus enhancing investor confidence.

All details are correct at the time of writing (24 March 2026)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

News in Review

All of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep rates unchanged – the first unanimous decision in over four yearsLast week the Chancellor announced a £2.5bn investment in AI, underlining the government’s focus on the tech sectorIn February, house prices rose annually by 1.6%, according to the latest figures from e.surv Chartered Surveyors

“Whatever happens, our job is to make sure inflation gets back to its 2% target”

Last week, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. Before the war broke out in Iran, many experts had been expecting to see a reduction this month, but concerns about the conflict’s economic impact have put any potential cuts on hold.

All members of the MPC voted to keep rates unchanged, marking the first unanimous decision in four and a half years. Some members said they were planning to vote for a cut before the escalation of geopolitical tensions. The war in the Middle East has put pressure on global oil and gas supplies, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted. As a result, the Bank of England (BoE) expects that inflation could rise to as high as 3.5% in July. Inflationary pressures had previously been reducing, having eased to 3% in January.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey commented, “War in the Middle East has pushed up energy prices. You can already see that at the petrol pump and, if it lasts, it will feed into higher household energy bills later in the year.” He added, “Whatever happens, our job is to make sure inflation gets back to its 2% target.” Some financial markets are anticipating a rise in Bank Rate in the coming months, but Bailey warned against jumping to “strong conclusions about raising interest rates.”

On Tuesday, the Chancellor announced in the Commons that the government intend to provide support to “those who need it most” in the face of potentially escalating energy bills as a result of the Middle East conflict. With the full impact of the conflict on the economy uncertain, Rachel Reeves said contingency planning was in progress for “every eventuality.”

Pay growth slows

Recent figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have shown that pay is growing at the slowest rate in over five years. Between November 2025 and January 2026, annual growth in employee earnings (excluding bonuses) was 3.8%, down from the previous figure of 4.1%. Looking ahead to April 2026, the National Living Wage will rise from £12.21 to £12.71 for those aged 21 and over.

Chancellor invests in AI                                                    

Chancellor Rachel Reeves gave her second Mais Lecture to business leaders last week, outlining the government’s strategy for the UK economy over the next decade. Reeves focused on the tech sector as a key driver of potential economic growth, announcing a £2.5bn investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing. This is part of a promise to “achieve the fastest AI adoption in the G7.” Reeves also pledged to double the government’s investment into the Oxford-Cambridge Growth Corridor, which will “unleash the potential of our science and technology powerhouses.” The Chancellor also shared plans to strengthen ties with the EU and align with its regulations where it may be beneficial for businesses.

John Foster at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) commented, “Amid global uncertainty, businesses will welcome the Chancellor’s clear focus on the drivers of sustained growth by addressing the UK’s longstanding productivity problem. Backing the UK’s strengths in AI and quantum, accelerating the OxCam corridor and strengthening ties with the EU together form a coherent set of next steps for advancing the UK’s growth mission – combining world-class innovation, place-based investment, and access to key markets.”

Modest house price growth

In February, house prices rose annually by 1.6%, according to the latest figures from e.surv Chartered Surveyors. The average UK property is now priced at £329,000. Scotland was the strongest performing region with annual growth of 4.3%, followed by the North West and Wales, both recording growth of 3.4%. Overall, the data indicates that housing activity strengthened in the first two months of the year, but geopolitical tensions have caused uncertainty in recent weeks. Some lenders are adjusting their mortgage rates, which has made the market more unpredictable for borrowers.

First-time buyers are getting older

New research has found that the average age of a first-time buyer in England has risen to 34. When records began in the mid-1990s, the typical age of a new homeowner was 29, which highlights that getting on the property ladder has become increasingly challenging.  Now, only 6% of FTBs are under 25, compared to 23% in the mid-1990s. Also, over half (52%) now need two or more full-time salaries to buy a home, up from 40% in 1994/95.

Here to help

Financial advice is key, so please do not hesitate to get in contact with any questions or concerns you may have.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

All details are correct at time of writing (25 March 2026)

News in Review

The UK economy unexpectedly flatlined in January following a growth of 0.1% in DecemberThe price of Brent Crude increased by around 9% on Thursday, back above the $100-per-barrel markThe housing market outlook is mixed, mortgage rates have increased and some residential mortgage products removed

“The near-term outlook is now dominated by heightened uncertainty surrounding conflict in the Middle East”

According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK economy unexpectedly flatlined in January, showing no monthly growth. This stagnation follows growth of 0.1% in December and 0.2% in November. According to a Reuters poll, economists had expected to see a 0.2% month-on-month increase.

The service sector showed no growth in January, with the largest downward contribution coming from a 2.7% fall in food and beverage service activities. Meanwhile, production declined by 0.1% due to falls in mining and quarrying, along with a dip in electricity and gas supply. Construction output increased by 0.2%.

The three-month GDP statistics are slightly more positive, with growth of 0.2% in the three months to January 2026. The largest upward contribution came from the production sector, which grew by 1.3%.

Deputy Chief Economist at CBI, Alpesh Paleja, commented, “While the economy managed to eke out modest growth in the three months to January, underlying momentum remained weak. The broader picture is still one of an economy treading water since the middle of last year. However, this data is already backward-looking. The near-term outlook is now dominated by heightened uncertainty surrounding conflict in the Middle East.”

Oil prices fluctuate

Oil prices are extremely volatile as the Middle East conflict continues to have a global economic impact. Before the outbreak of war in Iran, oil was around $71 a barrel, but the price has risen significantly and continues to fluctuate.  

Last Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that all 32 of its member countries would release a total of 400 million barrels from their emergency reserves. Despite this being a record amount, the price of Brent Crude increased by around 9% on Thursday, rising back above the $100-per-barrel mark. This is due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which typically ships 25% of global oil supplies. Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei has vowed to keep blocking the route, which will put further pressure on the price.

Mortgage rates tick higher

Mortgage rates have increased as geopolitical tensions affect the likelihood of further Bank Rate cuts in the UK. Some lenders have raised their rates, while others have chosen to remove products from the market entirely.

According to Moneyfacts, 472 residential mortgage products were withdrawn within 48 hours last week – the largest decline since September 2022 following Liz Truss’ mini-budget. Meanwhile, Nationwide increased rates by 0.25% on some of its two, three, five and 10-year products due to rises in swap rates.

Adam French at Moneyfacts commented, “It’s unwelcome news for borrowers, as the prospect of falling mortgage rates has quickly given way to rate rises. How far they could go is now heavily dependent on how global markets and inflation expectations evolve as conflict in the Middle East unfolds.”

Temperature check on the housing market

The latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors indicates a mixed outlook for the housing market. Buyer demand dipped in February, with new enquiries posting a net balance of -26%, down from -15% in January. The measure for agreed sales was marginally weaker, falling monthly from -9% to -12% in February. Meanwhile, survey responses suggest there has been a relatively stable flow of new supply over the last three months.

The uncertainty caused by the Middle East conflict seems to have affected near-term sales expectations, which recorded the lowest reading since November 2025 (-2%). Respondents were more hopeful about sales activity over the next twelve months, showing a net balance of +17%, down from +35% in January.

Looking at the lettings market, tenant demand was broadly stable, with a net balance of +2%. However, landlord instructions remained firmly in negative territory, with a net balance of -27%. A net balance of +20% respondents expect rent prices to increase over the next three months, in line with market predictions.

FTSE latest

The FTSE 100 pushed higher on Tuesday, despite the rise in oil prices, with gains in the banking sector providing a lift. The index closed on 10,403.60, above the 10,400 mark for the first time in a week.

Here to help

Financial advice is key, so please do not hesitate to get in contact with any questions or concerns you may have.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

All details are correct at time of writing (18 March 2026)

Secure your home and future

30% of UK adults could be forced to sell their family home if their partner unexpectedly died 60% of those with a mortgage don’t have a life insurance policy that includes mortgage protection Life insurance provides loved ones with vital financial support – talk it through with your family and seek advice  

The death of a partner can be devastating – not just emotionally but also financially. A survey1 has revealed that 30% of UK adults could be forced to sell their family home if their partner passed away unexpectedly. Another 18% would need to take on a second job or a side hustle to make ends meet. 

The research demonstrates the impact that a sudden bereavement can have on personal finances – especially when loved ones don’t have sufficient resources to cover big expenses, such as mortgage payments. 

A lifeline in difficult times 

The survey of 18 to 55-year-olds also revealed that 60% of those with a mortgage don’t have a life insurance policy that includes mortgage protection. 

Life insurance provides loved ones with financial support when the policyholder dies – normally in the form of a cash lump sum. Policies offer different levels of cover and can be taken out jointly or individually. 

Planning for the unexpected 

Trusts can also be a way to help secure your family’s financial future. For example, life insurance policies can be written ‘in trust,’ which means the payout will not be included in your estate and therefore exempt from Inheritance Tax. 

Making financial provision for loved ones in the event of your death can be complicated. Talking things through with family members and seeking professional advice are essential. 

1Tesco, 2025 

As a mortgage is secured against your home or property, it could be repossessed if you do not keep up mortgage repayments. Financial protection policies typically have no cash in value at any time and cover will cease at the end of the term. If premiums stop, then cover will lapse. The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate trust planning. 

Entrepreneurs defy uncertainty with optimism and adaptability

An HSBC report shows that entrepreneurs remain remarkably optimistic despite policy shifts, market volatility and trade disruption Entrepreneurial optimism tends to translate into investment, innovation and job creation across the broader economy Entrepreneurs’ appetite to harness long-term trends, from AI to global wealth flows, underpins continued growth and resilience 

Almost 3,000 entrepreneurs across 15 markets took part in HSBC’s Global Entrepreneurial Wealth Report 20251, providing a fascinating snapshot of how some of the world’s most successful wealth creators are feeling in an unpredictable economic landscape. Despite last year being shaped by policy shifts, market volatility and trade disruption, one message stands out: optimism remains remarkably high. 

Willem Sels, Global Chief Investment Officer at HSBC Private Banking, explains, “Entrepreneurs are very aware of the elevated volatility in financial markets, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty about future trade patterns. Yet they remain optimistic – and that’s because of their entrepreneurial spirit. Whatever way the global economy or trade patterns change, they are ready to adapt and take advantage of new opportunities.” 

Key findings from the report include: 

  • 94% of entrepreneurs say they are positive about their business prospects 
  • Among UK respondents, 71% forecast a significant improvement in personal wealth over the next year – well above the global average (~50%) 
  • The UK remains attractive due to its robust legal / regulatory framework, language and world-class education system 
  • Spending priorities: entrepreneurs cited luxury goods (53%), property (53%), cars (58%), health and wellness (50%) as top personal wealth uses 
  • Even in markets with political or economic uncertainty (including the UK), entrepreneurs maintain strong optimism – underlining resilience even when broader sentiment is muted. 

Why it matters 

Entrepreneurs have always been the engine of economic progress, and their confidence levels often provide an early signal of wider business sentiment. Gauging their outlook matters because entrepreneurial optimism tends to translate into investment, innovation and job creation across the broader economy. 

This report highlights that entrepreneurs are not only adapting to change but embracing it. Their appetite to harness long-term trends, from AI to global wealth flows, underpins continued growth and resilience. Understanding how entrepreneurs think and where they see potential, provides valuable insight into where the next phase of global economic momentum may come from. 

1HSBC, 2025 

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. 

News in Review

The International Monetary Fund’s latest statement on the Middle East conflict predicts an uncertain global GDP growth outlookChina’s Q4 growth slowed to 4.5% due to issues including weak domestic consumption, property challenges and a shrinking population According to the US government, a higher global tariff of 15% is likely to be implemented soon 

‘The situation remains highly fluid and adds to an already uncertain global economic environment’ 

Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a statement about the Middle East conflict, which began on 28 February after US-Israeli air strikes on Iran.  

At the start of the year, the IMF had forecast strong global GDP growth of 3.3% in 2026, but the outlook is now more uncertain. The IMF commented on the recent escalation in the Middle East, saying, ‘So far, we have observed disruptions to trade and economic activity, surges in energy prices, and volatility in financial markets. The situation remains highly fluid and adds to an already uncertain global economic environment. It is too early to assess the economic impact on the region and the global economy. That impact will depend on the extent and duration of the conflict.’ 

Potential impact of the conflict  

The war in the Middle East is a fast-developing situation. In addition to the devastating human toll of the conflict and obvious concerns of those in the region, we have seen an immediate impact on international travel and a surge in oil prices. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of oil consumed globally and large quantities of gas, has largely ceased amid Iranian attacks on tankers. 

Implications for the UK economy are emerging. The inflationary outlook is less certain as cost pressures look set to intensify. On Tuesday, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said that pressure on energy prices could push inflation close to 3% by end of the year. Markets had been expecting to see a cut to Bank Rate on 19 March, with traders previously saying there was an 86% chance of a reduction by 0.25 percentage points, due to promising inflation data and rising unemployment. However, markets have now reduced the probability of a cut this month to less than 5%. Last week, natural gas prices increased by about 45% in the UK due to fears surrounding Middle Eastern energy supplies. As a result, two-year gilt yields have risen to their highest levels since December. If higher energy prices persist, inflation could be driven up, in turn affecting the likelihood of further Bank Rate cuts.  

Many UK energy suppliers have taken their fixed-rate deals off the market over the last week because suppliers can no longer offer a set price for longer than a year. The number of available fixed-rate deals has more than halved. Meanwhile, the remaining fixed-rate deals have risen in price. 

China lowers target for economic growth 

Last week, China lowered its economic growth target to a range of 4.5%-5%, the lowest level since 1991. In 2025, China reached its overall target of 5% expansion; however, in Q4 growth slowed to 4.5%. As the world’s second-largest economy, this is a significant indicator of challenges faced both by China and other nations – the country is grappling with issues such as weak domestic consumption, a property crisis, a shrinking population, global trade tensions and energy concerns due to the Middle East conflict.  

House price update 

The latest data from Halifax shows that house prices rose monthly by 0.3% in February, down slightly from a rise of 0.8% in January. Meanwhile, prices increased by 1.3% year-on-year – the strongest annual growth rate in four months. The average house price now stands at £301,151.  

There is still a significant regional difference in house price growth. Northern Ireland continues to record the strongest UK performance, with a 6.3% annual rise in the 12 months to February. In England, the North East saw the strongest growth in February, with an annual rise of 3.5%. Meanwhile, southern regions are still experiencing declines in house prices. The South East recorded an annual fall of 2.2%.  

Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax, commented, “These latest figures suggest the market has regained some momentum after a softer end to 2025. While industry data for January show a slight easing in new mortgage approvals, overall activity has continued to prove resilient.” 

Higher US tariffs likely 

According to the US government, a higher global tariff of 15% is likely to be implemented soon. President Trump had previously said the 15% global rate would be introduced in February, but this was blocked by the Supreme Court, so a 10% rate was issued instead. The White House used an untested trade authority to bring in the 10% rate – under this law, Trump can temporarily introduce a tariff of up to 15% without approval from Congress.  

Here to help 

Financial advice is key, so please do not hesitate to get in contact with any questions or concerns you may have. 

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. 

All details are correct at time of writing (11 March 2026)